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The Turkish olive oil industry is facing what its representatives describe as an 'impossible trading environment,' triggered by new import duties in the United States, exceptionally high domestic prices, and the prospect of significant carry-over supplies into the next season. Industry figures in Turkey have expressed outrage over the additional tariffs, which threaten a crucial export market.
Effective July 24, 2026, the US imposed an additional 12.5% import duty on olive oil originating from Turkey. This decision stems from the Office of the United States Trade Representative's (USTR) assertion that Turkey, alongside 53 other nations, has failed to implement or enforce a ban on goods produced wholly or partly by forced labor. This new rate elevates the existing 10% additional import duty by 2.5%, applied under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, as reported by 'Turkish Minute'.
Local media highlight the deep dissatisfaction within the Turkish industry, particularly as competitor Tunisia remains exempt from these duties. While other major olive oil suppliers to the US also face additional tariffs—Morocco with a 12.5% duty, and Italy and Spain with a 15% duty—the Turkish sector feels particularly aggrieved. Emre Uygun, President of the Aegean Olive and Olive Oil Exporters Association (EZZİB), emphasized that if this decision is not rectified before the October harvest season, Turkish exporters risk losing their 'most important market.'
The US market has historically been vital for Turkey. In the first nine months of the 2024/25 season, the Turkish olive oil sector recorded total exports worth USD 480 million, with a substantial USD 118 million attributed to the US. In volume terms, 44,097 metric tons (mt) were exported, of which 19,041 mt—meaning 43 out of every 100 mt—were shipped to the United States. During the first six months of 2026, olive oil exports to the US generated USD 21 million.
Uygun expressed significant concern that the potential closure of the US market could force Turkish olive oil to be sold as raw material to other major producing countries like Spain and Italy. He noted, 'we are expecting a good harvest in the new season, but we may not be able to take advantage of this due to the new decision. We have made representations to the Ministry of Trade and all relevant bureaucracy regarding this matter.'
Beyond the US tariffs, Uygun outlined several other prevailing challenges for Turkish olive production and exports. The first half of 2026 saw Turkey's combined olive and olive oil exports reach approximately 59,000 mt, valued at USD 187 million, marking a 30% year-on-year decline in both quantity and value. This downturn is primarily driven by the adverse effects of global climate crises on yields, escalating production costs, the impact of export restrictions, and a general contraction in demand across international markets.
Specific breakdowns reveal further difficulties: black olive exports decreased by 13% in quantity to 33,000 mt and by 7% in value to USD 88 million. Green olive exports also saw a decline of 22% in quantity to 9,780 mt and 15% in value to USD 28 million. The most significant contraction was observed in the olive oil export market, where volumes plummeted by 52% to approximately 11,000 mt, with foreign exchange revenue dropping by 48% to USD 57 million.
Despite these export woes, Turkey is anticipating a bumper year for its olive crop. The Turkish Statistical Institute's (TÜİK) plant production estimates project a record crop of 3.8 million mt for 2026, representing a substantial 56% increase from the previous year, driven by an ever-increasing number of trees.
Managing this projected abundance poses a considerable challenge for a sector already struggling with high costs and a loss of competitiveness in export markets due to inflated prices. Current domestic prices for extra virgin olive oil are around TRY 250 per liter (USD 5.23/L), a significant rise from TRY 230-235/L (USD 4.82-4.92/L) just three weeks prior. For Turkish olive oil to be competitive in exports, its price needs to hover around EUR 3.10 (USD 3.58), equivalent to TRY 170. This stark discrepancy—the impossibility of buying at TRY 250 and selling at TRY 170—has brought the market to a standstill.
Adding to the complexity, approximately 200,000 mt of olive oil are expected to be carried over into the next season, creating a significant storage and sales problem. Furthermore, a two-year ban on bulk exports remains in effect, with the industry encouraged to export only packaged branded oil. However, high taxes imposed by Europe render Turkish branded oils uncompetitive, regardless of their quality. Source: Mundus Agri