Lang
The US Department of Agriculture issued its Grains and Oilseeds Outlook on February 19, forecasting increases in soybean production and planted acreage for 2026–2027. Soybean oil use in biofuel production is expected to rise by nearly 17%.
According to the USDA, US soybean supplies are projected to increase by 5% in 2026–2027, supported by higher beginning stocks and larger production. Soybean acreage is expected to expand by nearly 4 million acres, reflecting stronger profitability compared with other crops and expected crop rotations across the Corn Belt and Delta region.
Assuming normal weather, the average yield is forecast at 53 bushels per acre, lifting production by 188 million bushels to 4.45 billion bushels.
US soybean crush is expected to increase by 85 million bushels to 2.655 billion, supported by stronger demand for soybean meal and soybean oil. Growth in domestic soybean meal consumption is expected to moderate compared with the previous two years, while exports are projected to expand.
The USDA noted that soybean crush growth has accelerated sharply in recent years to meet rising demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock. This demand has been driven largely by the Environmental Protection Agency’s Renewable Fuel Standard volume obligations and state-level mandates.
California has been a key market for biomass-based diesel, with its share of total diesel fuel rising from around 25% in 2020 to more than 70% during the first three quarters of 2025. Although growth in California is expected to slow, the market will remain important, supported by other low-carbon fuel standard states such as Washington and New Mexico.
The USDA’s soybean oil biofuel outlook factors in the EPA’s proposed 2026 and 2027 Renewable Volume Obligations announced in June 2025. A major change in the proposal is that imported biofuel, or domestically produced biofuel made from foreign feedstocks, would receive only half the Renewable Identification Number credits granted to fuel produced in the United States from US feedstocks.
Based on this assumption, soybean oil use for biofuel in 2026–2027 is expected to rise to 17.3 billion pounds, up 2.5 billion pounds from the previous marketing year. Soybean oil prices are projected to increase to 58 cents per pound.
The USDA cautioned that if final Renewable Volume Obligations differ from the June 2025 proposal, the outlook will be reassessed in future monthly WASDE reports.
US soybean exports for 2026–2027 are forecast at around 1.7 billion bushels, recovering from the 2025–2026 forecast of 1.58 billion bushels, or 42.9 million tonnes. Exports in 2025–2026 are expected to fall to their lowest level in 13 years and account for a record-low 23% share of global soybean trade.
The decline reflects tariff measures that reduced shipments to China, historically the largest destination for US soybeans. Argentina’s temporary removal of export taxes also triggered an unusual increase in November exports, further affecting the US global market share.
Although US soybean exports are expected to rise in 2026–2027, the country’s share of global trade is likely to continue its long-term decline because of expanding South American supplies, especially from Brazil.
With higher supplies mostly offset by increased use, 2026–2027 soybean ending stocks are forecast at around 355 million bushels, nearly unchanged from 2025–2026. The season-average farm price is expected at $10.30 per bushel.
Source: Biomass Magazine