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The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has forecast that Kenya's palm oil imports will reach one million tonnes in 2025, as domestic consumption climbs to a record high, driven by population and economic growth in the country.
According to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) report on oilseeds: world markets and trade, Kenya was the world's eighth-largest palm oil importer in 2024, with imports totalling 875,000 tonnes.
More than 90% of Kenya's palm oil imports are consumed domestically in home-cooked food and food service establishments, according to the report, which was published in July.
The last time Kenya's imports exceeded the one-million-tonne mark was in 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, when shipments reached 1.1 million tonnes due to increased stockpiling and re-exports in anticipation of expected supply chain disruptions.
Although Kenya is not a major palm oil producer, it imports crude palm oil (CPO) to feed its large refining sector, the report said.
Between 2019 and 2023, crude oil accounted for more than 90% of Kenya's imports, but in 2024 the share of refined palm oil imports rose to 24%, likely due to higher tariffs on crude oil, which squeezed refining margins.
Kenya also serves as a regional transshipment hub, re-exporting refined palm oil to several neighbouring markets, including Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, according to the report.
With around 10% of palm oil supplies re-exported annually, Kenya is expected to export 90,000 tonnes in 2025, rising to 100,000 tonnes in 2026.
Since 2019, Kenya has undergone a major shift in its main source of palm oil, with Malaysia overtaking Indonesia and increasing its share of imports from 22% in 2019 to around 90% in 2024.
The report attributed this shift to Malaysia's stable price competitiveness, compared with rising domestic consumption in Indonesia, export bans, and volatile export tax policies.
Source: USDA