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KUALA LUMPUR — According to Thomas Mielke, the chief executive of ISTA Mielke GmbH and a prominent industry analyst, soybean oil is on track to potentially surpass palm oil as the world's most produced vegetable oil within the next six years. Speaking at a panel during the Malaysian Palm Oil Forum 2026, organized by the Malaysian Palm Oil Council, Mielke highlighted a significant shift in the global vegetable oil landscape.
The surge in soybean oil production is attributed to several competitive advantages, including the expansion of cultivated land, the development of high-yield varieties with increased oil content, and enhanced resistance to drought. Additionally, the industry benefits from superior labor-to-land ratios, significant economies of scale, and decreasing production costs. Mielke noted that South America continues to be a primary driver for this rising output.
Conversely, palm oil is facing a series of structural challenges that are slowing its growth. These include insufficient replanting efforts, the prevalence of Ganoderma disease, escalating production costs, and a reduction in fertilizer use. Furthermore, the sector is under increasing pressure to meet stringent global sustainability requirements. While palm oil has maintained its status as the world's most produced oil since the early 2000s—with Indonesia and Malaysia as dominant producers—the growth gap is narrowing. Together, palm and soybean oils represent approximately 56% of total global vegetable oil consumption.
Mielke's forecasts indicate a sharp deceleration in palm oil's annual production growth, expected to average 1.3 million tonnes between 2020 and 2030, compared to the 2.9 million tonnes averaged in the previous decade. For soybeans, global crushings are projected to increase by 7.5 million tonnes in the 2026/2027 season, following a 16 million tonne increase in 2025/2026. While soybean stocks are expected to tighten, oilmeal usage is projected to rise by nearly 10 million tonnes next season, though Mielke cautioned that current high oilmeal prices might hinder this expansion.
Source: The Edge Malaysia