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The Moroccan olive sector, which accounts for over 65% of the country's tree-crop acreage, is facing significant production volatility. Following an exceptional 2025-2026 season where production surpassed 2 million tons, the industry is now bracing for a substantial decline in the upcoming 2026-2027 harvest.
According to forecasts released in August 2026 by the Moroccan Professional Olive Federation (Interprolive), production is expected to drop by 40% compared to the previous season, settling at approximately 1.2 million tons. This follows a massive 111% surge in the 2025-2026 season relative to the 2024-2025 period, which was one of the sector's most challenging years with output at only 945,600 tons. Historically, the sector recorded 1.968 million tons in 2021-2022 before dipping to around 1.08 million tons in the following two seasons due to drought.
Farmers are currently navigating two primary challenges. The first is the prolonged heatwave extending into early October, which has compromised fruit quality. Rachid Benali, President of the Moroccan Confederation of Agriculture and Rural Development (COMADER), warned that the persistent high temperatures are causing a daily deterioration in production quality. The second challenge is a severe seasonal labor shortage. The high yields of the previous season highlighted the structural limitations of the agricultural labor market, driving up harvest costs and wages.
Despite the projected volume decline, the sector benefits from improved water security. Significant rainfall in the 2025-2026 season boosted dam reservoir levels to 76% by May 2026, compared to just 40.1% a year earlier. Kamal Ben Khalid, President of Interprolive, noted that abundant stocks of olives and olive oil from the previous bumper crop would ensure market stability. He also indicated that harvesting would commence earlier than usual this year.
From a broader economic perspective, the High Commission for Planning reported a 21.2% increase in agricultural value-added during the second quarter of 2026. The olive sector remains a cornerstone of the rural economy, spanning 1.1 million hectares. Approximately 67% of the harvest is destined for crushing, while 23% is for canning. While 70-75% of industrial canned olives are exported, the domestic market absorbs nearly 85% of Moroccan olive oil. Between 2018 and 2022, olive product exports averaged 1.92 billion dirhams annually, with 2024 seeing the export of 8,593 tons of virgin olive oil valued at $79.7 million.
Source: 24.ae