Lang
The coconut market is showing the first signs of a firmer trend, with desiccated coconut prices holding steady while coconut oil quotations have moved higher. According to the latest report from T.M. Duché, market participants are increasingly looking ahead to 2027 supply conditions, even as freight costs to Europe have eased in recent weeks.
Philippine coconut production recovered during the second quarter of 2026, climbing approximately 2.4% year-on-year to around 3.45 million metric tons. The rebound, however, has not been uniform across product categories.
Desiccated coconut exports painted a mixed picture. July shipments reached 14,384 metric tons, down 17.1% from the same month a year earlier, but 8.1% above the monthly average recorded between January and June. Cumulative exports from January to July totaled 94,209 metric tons, slightly above the 93,386 metric tons shipped during the same period last year. Meanwhile, domestic prices for desiccated coconuts in Manila and for shelled coconuts in the Southern Tagalog region have risen, leaving processors with higher input costs while export quotations have remained under pressure.
Activity in the coconut oil segment has picked up, with spot prices rising week-on-week. More notably, offers for February and March 2027 deliveries are already trading at a premium of roughly 7% above the most recent prompt shipment levels, a signal that the market is beginning to price in tighter availability next year. Coconut prices in the Philippines have also edged higher recently, although they remain below the levels recorded a year ago. The country's coconut oil exports reached 752,340 metric tons between January and July, up from 723,501 metric tons in the previous year. July alone, however, was 4.6% below the same month in 2025 and 30.4% below the average monthly pace seen from January to June.
For European buyers, the cost of moving cargo has eased. Freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam dropped 5% to USD 4,092 per 40-foot FCL, while the Shanghai-Genoa route fell 10%. Drewry anticipates a further moderate softening of pressure on rates, citing rising capacity on the Asia-Europe trade lane and softer demand.
Source: Mundus Agri