Lang
Oilseed prices came under renewed pressure after USDA experts, in their September report, raised the global oilseed production forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year to record levels, reinforcing expectations of market oversupply and a near-term price pullback.
The report triggered a broad sell-off in oilseed futures, with rapeseed and soybean quotes falling sharply on Friday. The revisions were particularly notable for rapeseed and sunflower, where the production outlook improved significantly compared with the previous month.
For rapeseed, the world production forecast for 2026/27 was lifted by 1.86 million tons to a record 99.97 million tons, compared with 96.04 million tons in 2025/26 and 86.28 million tons in 2024/25. The increase reflected a one-million-ton upgrade for Australia to 7.8 million tons (from 7.68 million tons in 2025/26), a 0.6-million-ton increase for the Russian Federation to 6.8 million tons (from 5.5 million tons), and higher estimates for Kazakhstan and Uruguay. These gains more than offset a 0.2-million-ton cut to the EU forecast, which was lowered to 20.15 million tons (from 20.66 million tons). Forecasts for Ukraine and Canada were left unchanged.
On the trade side, EU rapeseed imports were revised up by 0.7 million tons to 6.55 million tons (from 6.95 million tons). Export projections were lifted for Australia by 0.7 million tons to 6 million tons and for the Russian Federation by 0.15 million tons to 1.45 million tons.
In Friday's price action, November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange fell 2.6% to CAD 818/t, equivalent to USD 590/t, although prices remained 2.9% higher month-on-month. November rapeseed futures in Paris dropped 1.3% to €550.75/t, or USD 638/t, a monthly gain of 2.6%. The price retreat came despite a 20% monthly surge in November oil futures, driven by renewed disruption to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and a blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
For sunflower, the global production forecast was raised by 1 million tons to a record 63.65 million tons, up from 55.16 million tons in 2025/26 and 53 million tons in 2024/25. Adjustments included a 0.3-million-ton increase for the Russian Federation to 21 million tons (from 17.5 million tons), a 0.23-million-ton lift for the EU to 9.725 million tons (from 8.63 million tons), and a 0.3-million-ton increase for Kazakhstan to a record 2.7 million tons (from 2.4 million tons). Forecasts for Ukraine were left unchanged at 13 million tons and for Argentina at 8 million tons.
In Ukraine, domestic sunflower prices dropped by a further UAH 6,000-8,000/t to UAH 18,500-20,000/t with delivery to the plant in a month, pressured by the halt in sea exports and new Russian strikes on oil extraction plants inside the country, which is dampening domestic demand.
The global soybean production forecast was raised by 0.1 million tons to a record 442.35 million tons, versus 429.4 million tons in 2025/26 and 428 million tons in 2024/25. The overall balance was largely unchanged from the June, July and August reports. US production was raised by 0.4 million tons to 123.4 million tons (from 116 million tons), offsetting a 0.5-million-ton reduction in India's output to 11 million tons.
The forecast for US soybean harvest area was increased by 0.1 million acres from the August estimate, and the yield forecast was lifted by 0.1 bushel/acre to 52.8 bushels/acre, surprising analysts who had expected both yield and production estimates to fall.
Following the report, November soybean futures in Chicago dropped 2.8% to USD 476.4/t, although they remained 8.9% above the level reached after the August report.
High oil prices and the continued blocking of exports from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine and the Russian Federation remain the key supportive factors for oilseed prices. Should negotiations begin with Iran or the Russian Federation to halt the strikes and de-escalate tensions, oil and oilseed prices could decline sharply. Market participants are therefore advised to consider active selling now while prices remain elevated.
Source: Electronic Grain Exchange of Ukraine