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Brazil's soybean oil production is projected to reach 13.5 million tons in the 2026/27 marketing year, according to analysis from UkrAgroConsult. This growth is underpinned by an acceleration in domestic soybean crushing activities and escalating requirements from the burgeoning biofuel sector. Conversely, soybean oil exports are anticipated to contract by 15%, falling to 1.7 million tons from the current season's 2 million tons, as reported by FAS USDA. This anticipated dip in international shipments stems directly from surging domestic consumption, primarily driven by the scheduled implementation of a 16% mandatory biodiesel blending rate (B16) by 2027.
USDA data indicates that global demand for Brazilian soybean oil surged by over 50% in 2026, providing a robust foundation for the country's processing infrastructure. The upcoming B16 mandate is expected to be a pivotal factor, significantly diverting soybean oil toward biodiesel production. Consequently, even as overall production capacity expands, the heightened internal demand is likely to restrict the volumes available for the global export market.
Brazil’s soybean crush for 2026/27 is forecast at 65 million tons, a 2.3% increase over previous estimates. This upward trend is supported by ample raw soybean supplies, consistent demand for both soybean meal and oil, and a more conducive environment for domestic processing. Parallel to this, total soybean production is poised to hit a historic 184 million tons, marking the third consecutive record-breaking harvest for the nation. Total planted area is estimated at 49.7 million hectares, with an average yield of 3.7 tons per hectare.
However, despite record production levels, the expansion of soybean acreage in Brazil is losing momentum. The 2026/27 season is expected to see a modest 1.4% year-on-year increase in planted area, significantly lower than the 4.2% average annual growth rate observed over the past half-decade. Main constraints include high interest rates, economic volatility, and rising operational costs. USDA projects that soybean production expenses will climb by 6.6%, largely due to the increased prices of fertilizers and chemical crop protection.
On the raw commodity side, Brazil’s soybean exports could reach 117.5 million tons in 2026/27, up from 115 million tons in the current cycle. China remains the primary destination, although Brazilian exports to the Chinese market saw a 3.6% decline between January and September 2026 compared to the previous year. The continued push for domestic crushing and the biofuel sector's appetite for oil are expected to intensify the competition between export commitments and internal industrial use.
Source: UkrAgroConsult