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The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects palm oil prices to remain stable above 4,400 ringgit per tonne through the end of 2025, amid weak crude oil prices and rising vegetable oil stocks in key consuming markets such as China and India.
The council noted that escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, along with a build-up in global soybean stocks, will also weigh on price movements.
Meanwhile, the council expects vegetable oil prices to remain strong through the end of 2025, supported by strength in both palm oil and soybean oil.
In a statement, MPOC said: "Argentina's shrinking exportable soybean oil supplies are likely to push prices higher in the coming months, while ongoing speculation over Indonesia's B50 mandate will continue to support palm oil."
MPOC said palm oil has once again traded at a premium to soybean oil on the global market, with mid-October prices standing $42 a tonne higher in Europe and $26 a tonne higher in India, reflecting the brief discount period seen between April and September.
Meanwhile, Malaysia's palm oil exports rose by 102,000 tonnes, or 7.7% month-on-month, to reach 1.42 million tonnes in September, with most regions posting gains except the European Union and Asia-Pacific.
MPOC said the biggest improvement came from South Asia, with exports to India reaching 312,000 tonnes, an 11-month high, while shipments to Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, the Americas, and Central Asia also increased during the month.
The council added: "Palm oil stocks rose in September to 2.36 million tonnes, the highest level in 22 months, even though export growth outpaced production."
"The increase was largely driven by domestic consumption returning to its usual range of 300,000 to 350,000 tonnes a month, after hitting a record monthly level of 499,000 tonnes in August," MPOC said.
The council noted that imports also rose by 20,000 tonnes (+33.9% month-on-month), further contributing to the stock build-up.
Source: Bernama