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According to a new report released today by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
Vegetable oils: Global vegetable oil consumption is expected to exceed production, weighed down by lower soybean oil output, mainly due to reduced planted areas in Argentina, India, Ukraine and the United States.
In the least developed countries, spending on animal and vegetable oils is estimated to rise by 58% compared with 2024, with the increase broadly split between volume and price effects — the latter driven in particular by higher import prices for palm oil, raising concerns over affordability.
The "Food Outlook" report provides a detailed assessment of the olive oil market, forecasting a recovery from the recent drought conditions that curbed production and pushed up prices.
Wholesale prices in Spain (the world's leading producer) and Greece have fallen by more than half since early 2024, although they remain relatively elevated in Italy. Abundant rainfall throughout the growing season in Tunisia points to record output exceeding 400,000 tonnes, which could make the country the world's second-largest olive oil producer in the 2025/2026 season.
Lower prices are supporting a recovery in consumption, and global olive oil trade could reach a record high next season, although US tariffs may limit overall trade volumes.