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The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lowered its forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production for the 2024-2025 season, according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released on 10 April 2026. Despite this reduction, the department simultaneously raised its price forecast for soybean oil.
The report showed the expected volume of soybean oil used in biofuel production falling to 13.25 billion pounds for the 2024-2025 season, a cut of 200 million pounds compared with March's forecast of 13.45 billion pounds. The USDA attributed the adjustment to the current pace of market usage. For the 2023-2024 season, soybean oil use in biofuel stood at around 12.989 billion pounds, a notable increase from 12.51 billion pounds in 2022-2023.
Despite the lower consumption forecast for soybean oil in biofuel, the USDA expects demand to pick up in the second half of the season, based on expectations that tariffs will be imposed on imports of alternative feedstocks used in biofuel production, such as used cooking oil, which would increase reliance on domestically produced soybean oil.
Meanwhile, overall forecasts for the US soybean crop in 2024-2025 point to higher import volumes and increased crush rates, leading to a decline in ending stocks. Crush volume is expected to rise by 10 million bushels to reach 4.42 billion bushels, driven by stronger domestic demand for soybean meal and higher soybean oil export commitments, which prompted the USDA to raise its soybean oil export forecast in the latest report. With soybean exports unchanged and a slight increase in imports, the USDA projected ending stocks of 375 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from the previous estimate.
On prices, the USDA held its forecast for the average US soybean price steady at $9.95 per bushel. Soybean meal prices are expected to fall by $10 to $300 per short tonne, while soybean oil prices are forecast to rise by 2 cents to 45 cents per pound.
Globally, soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2024-2025 present a mixed picture. Opening stocks are expected to be higher, mainly due to an upward revision of Brazil's 2023-2024 crop by 1.5 million tonnes to 154.5 million tonnes, following a review of domestic consumption data. Global soybean production for 2024-2025 is expected to edge down by 200,000 tonnes, owing to lower output in Bolivia, partially offset by increased production in South Africa, the United Arab Emirates and the European Union.
Source: Al Mal Forum