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The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture has trimmed its 2026-27 soybean output forecast for India while raising its import projection, citing erratic monsoon rainfall and farmer-driven shifts away from the oilseed toward cotton and corn.
In a report dated September 3, the agency's New Delhi office pegged India's 2026-27 (October–September) soybean planted area at 11.4 million hectares, output at 9.6 million tonnes, and yield at 0.91 tonnes per hectare, all lower than its earlier estimates. Soybean imports, by contrast, were revised up to 500,000 tonnes.
'Irregular rainfall during the planting window disrupted sowing operations and required replanting in parts of Maharashtra, a leading soybean-producing state,' the report said. 'Compounding this, farmers increasingly diverted acreage to cotton, drawn by stronger market prices, and to corn, motivated by improved income prospects.'
Field observations indicate that the expansion of corn cultivation, encouraged by more attractive returns and government support prices linked to ethanol-blending targets, has been a key driver of the soybean acreage decline, particularly in Maharashtra, the office added.
On the demand side, the agency forecast that food-use consumption of soybeans will grow by 4% above the annual estimate of 820,000 tonnes, supported by rising demand for plant-based products such as tofu, soymilk, and soy flour. Feed-use demand is expected to climb 25% over the annual forecast of 900,000 tonnes. The agency attributed the increase to a shift among poultry producers toward greater soybean meal usage, even at higher prices, as corn supplies are increasingly diverted to ethanol production. The projected feed-use level, it noted, remains 18% above the previous low feed-use consumption recorded in marketing year 2025-26.
India's soybean exports are expected to hold steady at 25,000 tonnes in 2026-27. Imports, meanwhile, are forecast at 500,000 tonnes, an increase of more than 100% from the earlier estimate of 200,000 tonnes. According to the report, this projection is contingent on a favourable harvest in key African supplier nations, particularly Benin, Niger, and Togo, which serve as India's primary source of non-genetically modified soybeans under least developed country (LDC) trade provisions that grant duty-free access.
The FAS also revised India's soybean oil production estimate downward by 6% to 1.6 million tonnes from the initial forecast of 1.7 million tonnes. The agency attributed the cut to the anticipated decline in soybean output relative to last year, lower domestic yields, reduced planted area, and farmers' continued shift toward alternative crops. Standing crops in several major producing areas are expected to show reduced pod formation and lower oil content as a result of unseasonal and erratic rainfall in July and August.
Total soybean oil supply for 2026-27 has been revised up by 3% year on year to 7.5 million tonnes, reflecting broader shifts in India's edible oil market. According to the report, fluctuations in palm oil supply and pricing, combined with changing global production patterns, are likely to drive a substitution effect, with consumers and processors shifting from palm oil toward soybean oil. Discounted global soybean oil prices are reinforcing the move by making soy oil a more economically competitive alternative to palm.
The report estimated soybean oil imports in 2026-27 at 5.6 million tonnes, up 2% from 2025-26 estimates. Discounted soybean oil from Brazil and Argentina is expected to continue dominating India's edible oil market, with both countries driving a strong supply influx. The report also highlighted that India has shifted its traditional sourcing patterns by importing a record 140,000 tonnes of soybean oil from China, a purchase driven by surplus availability in the Chinese market.
Source: Informist