Lang
Export bid prices for genetically modified (GMO) soybeans in Ukraine have fallen as global supplies of soybeans and soybean meal rise, with cheaper, higher-quality product from South America and the United States prompting processors to reduce both demand and prices.
Over the course of the week, export bids for GMO soybeans dropped by $3 to $5 a tonne, settling in a range of $385 to $387 a tonne, equivalent to 18,000–18,100 Ukrainian hryvnia per tonne delivered to Black Sea ports. The number of companies buying soybeans for export also continued to decline.
Processors likewise cut prices by 100 to 300 hryvnia, bringing plant-delivered prices down to 17,000–17,800 hryvnia per tonne, as farmers increased their offers.
By contrast, prices for non-GMO soybeans held steady at $425–435 a tonne, or 19,800–20,100 hryvnia per tonne delivered to ports and 19,000–19,200 hryvnia per tonne delivered to plants, reflecting low stocks of this variety among producers.
Brazil's grain exporters association ANEC raised its forecast for May soybean exports from Brazil by 0.25 million tonnes from its previous estimate, to 14.52 million tonnes, despite a slowdown in shipments to China.
According to Chinese customs data, China's soybean imports fell in April year on year, dropping from 8.6 million tonnes to 6.08 million tonnes. Imports from Brazil fell 22.2% to 4.6 million tonnes, while imports from the United States plunged 43.7% to 1.38 million tonnes.
July soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 1.9% to $386.9 a tonne (up 1% month on month), pressured by favourable planting weather in the United States, although data showing an increase in crush activity offered some support to prices.
According to the US National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), US soybean crush volumes rose 14% in April compared with April 2024, reaching a record 5.5 million tonnes for the month. Total crush for the current season hit a record 44.7 million tonnes, up from 42.2 million tonnes over the same period of the 2023/2024 season and above the five-year average of 40.6 million tonnes.
This has pushed soybean oil stocks to a 10-month high, as export volumes slowed on account of higher prices relative to South American oil.
According to data from the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), 66% of planned soybean acreage in the United States had been planted as of 18 May, compared with 50% a year earlier and a five-year average of 53%.
In Argentina, flooding has delayed the soybean harvest, pushing prices higher. However, an expected improvement in weather is set to speed up harvesting and boost supplies, adding further downward pressure on prices in June.
Source: Al Mal Forum