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The Ukrainian sunflower market is currently grappling with a sustained decline in purchase prices, primarily triggered by a cooling in demand from domestic processors. These market players are increasingly hamstrung by severe logistical impediments affecting the export of sunflower oil and meal.
As of October 26, Ukraine has successfully harvested 9.833 million tons of sunflower from 4.44 million hectares, representing 85% of the total area. The average yield is trending higher at 2.21 tons per hectare compared to last year's 1.84 tons per hectare. While local estimates suggest a total harvest of 12 million tons, the USDA maintains a more optimistic forecast of 13 million tons. However, prolonged rainfall over the past fortnight is complicating the final stages of the harvest, risking potential quality degradation and crop losses.
Over the past week, domestic purchase prices for sunflower seeds in Ukraine dropped by 500-1,000 UAH/t, settling between 14,500 and 17,000 UAH/t with VAT. On a pre-tax basis, this equates to $280-$340/t for factory delivery with a 48% oil content. While supply is fundamentally increasing, the rain-induced delays have led some farmers to pause their sales. Meanwhile, a 1% depreciation of the hryvnia against the dollar is expected to offer some underlying support to prices if the currency trend continues.
Export activity has seen a recent spark following the reduction in minimum export prices. Operational data shows that in the first 22 days of October, Ukraine exported 25,000 tons of sunflower seeds, primarily to Turkey, Italy, and Austria. New licensing for Bulgaria and Romania is expected to accelerate previously contracted shipments. Export demand prices for Bulgaria sit at €475–€485/t, though currency shifts have pushed dollar-equivalent prices down to $530–$540/t. In Turkey, demand remains at $600/t, but a 10% import duty and significant border queues are eroding the profitability of this route.
Regarding processed goods, Ukraine exported 217.7 thousand tons of meal and 178 thousand tons of sunflower oil during the same 22-day period in October 2026. Government intervention to prioritize border crossings for oil and meal has marginally improved road and rail logistics. Despite this, domestic oil prices fell to $900-$1,000/t (FCA-factory) as logistics costs to EU ports surged and the euro weakened.
In the Russian Federation, a 50% export duty on sunflower seeds continues to keep domestic raw material costs low, bolstering the global competitiveness of Russian processors. Russian sunflower prices have plummeted 54% since May to approximately $220–$330/t. Furthermore, Russia increased its sunflower meal exports by 30% to 3.39 million tons in the first eight months of 2026, with China increasing its intake by 50%. The influx of low-priced meal is expected to place significant downward pressure on the prices of global feed crops and associated oilseeds.
Source: Electronic Grain Exchange of Ukraine