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Olive Oil Times has reported that Turkey is facing a sharply lower olive oil season, with production expected to decline significantly from last year's record volume of 475,000 tonnes.
According to estimates, the country is expected to produce 310,000 tonnes of olive oil in the 2025/2026 season, amid concerns over rising costs and financial pressures affecting the sector.
Farmers and officials quoted in a report published on 1 December said the expected decline is due to the trees' natural cycle, known as alternate bearing, and unusually harsh weather during the flowering period, which damaged fruit set in key producing regions.
Olive Oil Times said producers across Turkey have also reported lower yields, with adverse weather conditions and unfavourable exchange rates compounding the challenges facing the industry.
Mustafa Tan, head of Turkey's National Olive and Olive Oil Council (UZZK), was quoted as saying: "The National Committee for Estimating and Evaluating the Olive and Olive Oil Crop for the 2025/2026 season has determined that Turkey will produce 310,000 tonnes of olive oil and 740,000 tonnes of table olives in the 2025/2026 production season."
He added: "As is the case in all countries, these estimates may be adjusted as the harvest progresses and is completed."
Tan noted that damage to the early season from cold weather and drought conditions had begun to ease following sustained rainfall in October.
He predicted that yields would improve as the harvest progresses. Taking into account remaining stocks and expected production, he estimated that more than 500,000 tonnes of olive oil would be available to Turkish producers and exporters by the end of the season.
However, he acknowledged that rising costs and financial pressures continue to weigh on the sector.
He said: "As in every country, rising production costs and financial difficulties are negatively affecting producers, manufacturers and exporters."
In its October forecast, the International Olive Council (IOC) projected an even sharper decline in Turkey's national crop for the 2025/2026 season, estimating production at between 280,000 and 290,000 tonnes.
Some analysts have forecast an even steeper drop. Agricultural journalist Ali Ekber Yildirim reported that most of the producers, traders and mill owners he interviewed expect output of between 150,000 and 180,000 tonnes.
He added: "One or two people suggested that with the recent rainfall, the figure could reach 200,000 tonnes."
Alber Alhat, head of the Akhisar Commodity Exchange, also forecast production below 200,000 tonnes, most likely in the range of 170,000 to 180,000 tonnes.
He was quoted as saying: "This year, yields will be low but quality will be high."
Olive Oil Times said producers across Turkey pointed to harsh weather as the main factor behind the weak outlook.
Ismail Sahin of Zagoda Olive Oil was quoted as saying: "Last year's very harsh winter and the summer drought have negatively affected the olive crop."
He added: "This season's crop is very low, well below our expectations. This drop in the harvest applies across all of Turkey, which will cause prices to rise."
Sahin added that the unfavourable exchange rate, with the Turkish lira failing to keep pace with inflation, has further reduced producers' competitiveness.
He said: "This will make it very difficult for Turkish olive oil to compete with olive oils from other countries in international markets."
Source: Olive Oil Times