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Greece's olive and feta sectors — two of the country's most important agricultural exports — are coming under simultaneous pressure in 2026 from U.S. tariffs, intensifying low-cost competition, and livestock disease outbreaks that are reshaping supply chains in the oils and fats trade.
Olive exports reverse after a decade of growth
Greek olive exports contracted in the first half of 2026, with values slipping roughly 1% and volumes falling 2.25% year on year. The downturn marks the first decline after ten consecutive years of expansion and signals a clear break in the sector's long upward trajectory.
Shipments of table olives to the United States — Greece's single largest export market — dropped 6%, as repeated shifts in the Trump administration's tariff regime triggered order cancellations and disrupted established trade flows.
A further 5% contraction was recorded across other key destinations, with weaker European Union demand, driven by persistent inflation and reduced household purchasing power, weighing on orders from major buyers such as Germany.
Australia: Egypt closes the gap
Greek exporters are also ceding ground in Australia, where lower-priced Egyptian olives have made rapid inroads. Egypt's share of the Australian market has climbed to 17.5%, up from just 3.1% three years earlier. Despite the erosion, Greek suppliers still command 79% of the Australian market by value.
The EU-Mercosur trade agreement adds another layer of risk. Tariffs on olive imports from Mercosur countries are scheduled to fall, while European olive exports will continue to face duties — an asymmetry that industry players warn could reshape competitive dynamics further. In response, Greek exporters are actively exploring India as an alternative growth market.
Feta: demand strong, supply under threat
The feta side of the equation is being shaped by an animal-health crisis. Sheep milk deliveries are projected to decline by 80,000 tons in 2026, which would translate into a reduction of roughly 20,000 tons of feta output. By 21 August, nearly 573,000 sheep and goats had been culled because of disease outbreaks across the country.
Paradoxically, feta exports still rose 7% as international demand held firm, with producer prices climbing and the prospect of higher retail prices for consumers on the horizon.
Taken together, the olive tariff headwinds, intensifying competition from lower-cost producers, and the livestock disease crisis are hitting two of Greece's flagship agri-food products at the same time — making 2026 a markedly more challenging year for the country's oils and fats exporters.
Source: Greek City Times