Sunflower Market Reacts To USDA's May WASDE Report

During the week ending 16 May, spot sunflower prices rose between 50 cents and $1, while new-crop prices at crushing plants remained unchanged, following the release of the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

The May WASDE report is one of the USDA's most closely watched releases of the year, offering an initial outlook on global production, supply and demand for several crops for the 2025-2026 marketing season.

According to John Sandbakken, Executive Director of the National Sunflower Association (NSA), commenting on the report in the association's newsletter dated 19 May:
"Historically, these baseline numbers are among the key factors that will significantly influence the pricing of the 2025 crop over the coming year."

The report forecasts global sunflower production will rise 8% year-on-year to reach 56.2 million tonnes. Estimates point to higher output in the United States, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey, as well as the European Union.

Sandbakken added:
"Russia is expected to remain the world's largest producer, followed by Ukraine and then the European Union."

The report also projects global ending stocks of sunflower seed will rise 6% compared with last year. He said:
"With more seed available, global crush volume is expected to rise 9% compared with the 2024-2025 season. Global sunflower oil consumption is also expected to rise 9%, driven by the increase in crush volume."

The report further forecasts an 8% rise in sunflower oil exports, while global ending stocks of sunflower oil are expected to dip slightly from last year.

Sandbakken cautioned:
"These figures should be taken with caution, as they are the first estimates for the upcoming marketing season. The vast majority of sunflower crops are still in the planting stage, and there is still a long way to go before harvest. A lot can happen over the coming months."

Crush plant bids as of 19 May:

• Cargill – West Fargo, North Dakota:
  • June delivery: $27.75 (high-oleic sunflower)
  • July delivery: $27.00
  • New-crop contracts:
    • Cash: $22.55
    • With Act of God (AOG) clause: $22.05
• ADM – Enderlin:
  • June: $27.25
  • July: $26.75
  • New-crop contracts:
    • Cash: $22.70
    • With AOG clause: $22.20
• ADM – Pingree, North Dakota:
  • June and July: No quote (NQ)
  • New-crop contract:
    • Cash: $22.20
    • With AOG clause: $21.70

Oil content premiums:

Sandbakken concluded:
"One thing to keep in mind when making marketing decisions is the premiums crush plants pay for oil content."

"Sunflower is the only oilseed for which premiums are paid for oil content exceeding 40%."
He explained that a 2% price increase is offered for every 1% increase in oil content above 40%, meaning a contract with 45% oil content sees a 10% rise in return per 100 pounds.
For example: a $22.70 contract rises to $25.00 with 45% oil content.