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MANILA — The Philippine coconut market is regaining momentum as European buyers and traders return to active procurement following the summer holiday season, according to the latest report from T.M. Duché.
The rebound in trading is expected to translate into firmer pricing and higher transaction volumes over the coming weeks, with demand particularly focused on Q4 2026 deliveries and the first positions for 2027.
Export prices for desiccated coconuts have shown remarkable stability, remaining unchanged for 30 consecutive weeks across the US, European, and other key markets, according to Philippine suppliers. The domestic market in Manila has moved in the opposite direction, with prices rising week-on-week. The return of European market participants could now test this extended period of stability, as increased enquiries and transactions for late-2026 and early-2027 positions are likely to generate more pronounced price movements.
The European coconut oil market remains relatively subdued in the near term. Buying interest is concentrated on early 2027 positions, while demand for short-term Q4 2026 volumes has been more muted. Despite this, European coconut oil quotations have edged higher in recent sessions.
Copra prices in the Philippines have also strengthened, with average farmgate prices rising compared with the previous week and the previous month, although year-on-year millgate prices remain approximately 28% below last year's levels.
Freight costs continue to weigh on the market. The Drewry World Container Index held steady, although rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam and Genoa eased slightly. Available capacity on key east–west routes is being actively managed, and developments in the Red Sea remain a major source of uncertainty for shipments of Philippine coconut products to Europe.
Houthi forces have recently expanded their positions along the Yemeni coast and moved closer to the strategically vital Bab al-Mandeb strait, which links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and forms a critical section of the Asia–Europe shipping lane. The current escalation could prompt shipping lines to continue or intensify diversions via the Cape of Good Hope, lengthening transit times, tying up additional capacity, and pushing up fuel and insurance costs. For Philippine coconut exporters serving European buyers, transport costs are therefore likely to come under sharper focus in the weeks ahead.
Source: mundus-agri.eu