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Palm oil exports are expected to reach 16 million tonnes in 2026, driven by falling stock levels, according to an industry expert.
Thomas Mielke, Executive Director of ISTA Mielke GmbH (Oil World), said Malaysia's export performance in the first month of the year showed encouraging signs for the coming months.
Speaking during a workshop session titled "Global Supply, Demand and Price Outlook for Palm and Lauric Oils, and the Impact of Other Vegetable Oils" at the 37th Palm and Lauric Oils Price Outlook Conference and Exhibition 2026 held here on Tuesday, Mielke said: "Full-year palm oil production could remain slightly below 20 million tonnes."
Mielke noted that the year-on-year increase currently under way in the January-March quarter is providing a boost to production in Malaysia during the first three to five months of this year.
According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), palm oil exports totalled 16.61 million tonnes in 2025. Exports rose by 11.44% in January 2026 to reach 1.48 million tonnes, compared with 1.33 million tonnes in December 2025.
In its January 2026 performance report, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said crude palm oil (CPO) production fell by 13.78%, or 252,095 tonnes, to 1.58 million tonnes, compared with 1.83 million tonnes the previous month.
Mielke said palm oil's global market share is expected to decline over the next ten years, as it will only be able to meet 15% to 20% of the world's growth in consumption of oils and fats.
He added: "This decline creates a challenging situation for consumers around the world, unless biodiesel mandates in Indonesia are scaled back. Indonesia is likely to be unable to sustain its B40 biodiesel mandate in 2027 if production falls, if the gap with gas oil widens further, and if palm oil exports decline."
Mielke forecast that global annual growth in palm oil would shrink to 1.3 million tonnes or less by 2030, compared with the average annual growth of 2.9 million tonnes recorded in 2020, should Indonesian production continue to contract in 2027 and 2028.
Source: Bernama