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The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) has said crude palm oil prices in Malaysia are expected to remain within a narrow range of 3,800 to 4,100 ringgit per tonne in January 2026, underpinned by a balanced supply and demand outlook.
The council noted that although the first quarter typically marks a period of seasonally lower production, demand is expected to improve as the Lunar New Year and the month of Ramadan approach, helping to draw down stock levels.
In a statement issued yesterday, the council said: "However, weak energy markets, combined with ample oilseed supplies, are likely to limit any sustained price recovery, keeping prices within a tight trading range."
The council forecast that Malaysia's palm oil exports would rise to 16.2 million tonnes in 2026, while output is expected to fall to 19.7 million tonnes as palm oil trees enter a resting phase following the strong performance seen in 2025.
November performance:
The report noted that demand from the European Union has weakened following the 12-month delay in the implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which removed the need for importers to build up precautionary stocks.
Globally, the council pointed to a decline in US soybean oil prices to a five-month low of $1,130 per tonne, coinciding with expectations that the US Environmental Protection Agency will not finalise President Trump's 2026 biofuel policy, which prioritises domestically produced soybean oil, until the first quarter of 2026.
The council added: "Global soybean production is expected to stagnate at 424 million tonnes in 2026. Nevertheless, ample soybean supplies are expected to continue weighing on market sentiment given the large volumes of oilseeds available."
Source: Bernama