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After two brutal years of drought, poor harvests and record-high prices, Spain's olive oil industry is showing clear signs of recovery.
As a cornerstone of the Mediterranean diet and the rural economy, olive oil enters the 2024/2025 season with renewed optimism. For now, the sky-high prices seen in recent times are unlikely to return anytime soon.
Ex-mill selling prices have begun to fall, edging closer to 2022 levels. With a strong harvest expected this season and positive forecasts for next season thanks to recent rainfall, a mood of optimism prevails.
From July 2022 to April 2024, extra virgin olive oil prices for consumers rose by more than 112%, at times exceeding 15 euros per litre. Farmers saw prices peak in January 2024, nearing 9 euros per litre — a 158% increase — according to data from Infaoliva.
But that trend has begun to reverse. After adjusting for inflation, retail prices fell by 38% from March 2023 to March 2024, while producer prices dropped by more than 50%.
Spain is the world's largest producer and exporter of olive oil, typically producing more than a million tonnes a year, though output has recently declined due to weather conditions. The war in Ukraine has also added to costs.
With strong production of 1.407 million tonnes expected for the 2024/2025 season, the future appears to hold fresh promise.