US Soybean Crush Sets Two New Records in December 2024

Soybean crushing in December 2024, according to the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), reached nearly 206.6 million bushels, setting two new records: one as an all-time monthly record, and the other as a new record for the month of December. This figure represents a 6.9% increase compared with November 2024. The new monthly record was hardly surprising, particularly as at least two new soybean crushing facilities came online in December 2024. It is highly likely that several more records will be set this year as additional facilities begin operations. It is worth noting that NOPA is a trade association representing 95% of the US soybean crushing industry.

Soybean Crushing Capacity Expands on Soybean Oil Demand

Over the past four months, new soybean crushing facilities have started operating due to the unprecedented shift over the past four years towards crushing soybeans to produce soybean oil, even though it is the smaller-share component of the process. Soybean oil yields about 11 pounds (equivalent to 18% of a 60-pound bushel of soybeans), while soybean meal accounts for the larger share at 48 pounds (80%) of total output. Soybean oil can be used as a feedstock for producing biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

The Cost of Building New Soybean Crushing Facilities

Building a new soybean crushing facility takes 24 months, while site selection, securing financing, and the final decision to build can take a further 12-18 months. Building a new facility is an extremely costly investment, with capital costs reaching $200 million or more. The importance of making the right decision at the right time and place can either see a facility running for decades to come or force its closure if the timing is misjudged.

Soybean Oil as an Economic Boost for American Farmers

Over the past three to five years, soybean oil has been promoted as a new economic driver for American producers, finally giving them a competitive edge over Brazil. At the time, it was believed the United States would need to plant an additional 6 million acres of soybeans to produce an extra 300 million bushels of soybeans, to be crushed almost solely for oil production.

The 2025 Economic "Rescue" That Failed

But heading into 2025, it has become clear that this "economic opportunity" has failed to materialise, for two main reasons:

1. Brazil massively increased its output, adding 50 million acres of soybeans, which led to more than 2 billion additional bushels of production, disrupting the global market balance.
2. The US government has failed to develop strong policies to support soybean oil, with massive imports of used cooking oil from China and other countries still counted under incentive programmes, despite not being domestically produced oil.

Crop Insurance for the 2025 Season — With February underway, the next 45 days will be crucial for 2025 crop insurance coverage. Key dates include:

• The close of corn and soybean insurance sales on 15 March, the deadline for farmers to make changes to their crop coverage.
• The average prices of December 2025 corn contracts and November 2025 soybean contracts on the CBOT will be calculated during February to set spring revenue prices.

In mid-January, the December 2025 corn contract price stood at around $4.56, while the November 2025 soybean contract was at $10.27. By comparison, spring 2024 prices were:

• Corn: $4.66, falling to $4.16 by autumn.
• Soybeans: $11.55, falling to $10.03 by autumn.

Price volatility will be a key factor in determining the cost of revenue protection per acre. In mid-January, soybean volatility stood at 0.14, compared with 0.15 a year earlier.