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The olive harvesting season has officially commenced in Northern Morocco, particularly in the Ouezzane province, a major production hub. Early market data shows olive fruit prices ranging between 3.5 and 6 MAD per kilogram. Professionals anticipate a significant drop in olive oil prices as crushing operations expand, bolstered by substantial carryover stocks from the previous season, though final pricing remains contingent on harvest volume and demand levels through December.
Following successive years of drought that saw prices surge past 100 MAD per liter, consumers are closely watching the market. Local industry experts now project that retail prices for the new oil will stabilize between 40 and 45 MAD per liter, a downward revision from earlier estimates of 50 MAD. This trend is supported by the availability of stocks from the 2023-2024 cycle, which saw production hit approximately two million tons, a 111% increase over the prior period.
In Ouezzane, early extraction yields have varied between 14 and 24 liters per quintal. Since the commercial value of the crop depends on oil content rather than fruit weight, these yields are critical for farmer profitability. However, the national outlook is more tempered; Kamal Benkhald, President of the Moroccan Interprofessional Olive Federation, expects a 40% decline in national production compared to last year due to insufficient tree recovery time after late harvests.
Despite the projected national decline, Benkhald dismissed concerns regarding supply shortages, citing the cushion provided by existing reserves. Producers in the north still face operational challenges, including a shortage of seasonal labor and rising logistical costs. Crushing fees currently remain stable at 50 to 70 centimes per kilogram. The market equilibrium now rests on the balance between lower consumer price expectations and the rising production costs faced by small-scale farmers.
Source: Tanger 24