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Turkey's olive oil exports plummeted by 53% between January and September 2026 compared to the same period last year, totaling only 15.7 thousand tons. This sharp decline resulted in a 48% drop in export revenue, which fell to $82.1 million. Industry analysts attribute the downturn to intensifying global competition, rising domestic production costs, and restrictive trade barriers in major importing nations. Across the broader olive sector, Turkey shipped 87 thousand tons of olives and olive oil during the nine-month window, marking a 28% year-on-year decrease.
Conversely, the nation is bracing for a substantial surge in production for the 2026/27 marketing year. Preliminary data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) suggests the olive harvest could climb 56% to reach 3.8 million tons, up from 2.5 million tons in the prior season. The final volume of olive oil produced will remain contingent on processing rates and oil content. However, with heavy harvests also anticipated across other Mediterranean producers, global prices are expected to face significant downward pressure.
The export slump has permeated all segments of the Turkish olive industry. Shipments of black olives fell by 14% to 48.1 thousand tons, while green olive exports saw a 19% reduction to 14.4 thousand tons. Olive pomace oil exports were particularly hard hit, dropping 40% to 8.6 thousand tons. Total revenue from all olive-related exports declined by 28% to $273 million, highlighting the erosion of the competitive edge previously held by Turkish producers in international markets.
To facilitate an export recovery, industry stakeholders are advocating for a drastic revision of trade agreements. Exporters are specifically targeting the removal of a 12.5% additional tariff in the United States and are lobbying for the European Union to increase its duty-free olive oil import quota from a nominal 100 tons to at least 60,000 tons. Furthermore, producers are seeking duty-free access to the United Kingdom through future bilateral trade deals.
Historically, Turkey has seen its global market share dwindle. From exporting 150 thousand tons worth over $700 million in the 2022/23 season, volumes fell to just 20 thousand tons valued at $105.7 million by 2025/26. With the USDA forecasting global olive oil production to reach 3.3 million tons in 2026/27—including 2.1 million tons from the EU—rising global supplies are likely to further heighten competition and complicate the path to recovery for Turkish exporters.
Source: UkrAgroConsult