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The Mediterranean region, which accounts for approximately 95% of global olive oil production, is warming at a pace significantly faster than the global average. A new study published in the scientific journal 'Pure and Applied Geophysics' has identified significant increases in average monthly, seasonal, and annual temperatures across nearly the entire Mediterranean basin. The most pronounced warming trends have been recorded in areas that represent a substantial share of global olive cultivation.
Researchers analyzed temperature data from the European Copernicus Climate Change Service, finding that the strongest warming trends were observed in the Balkan Peninsula, Turkey, inland Spain, and northwestern Africa. Compared with the mid-20th century, average annual temperatures in the Mediterranean and Europe have already risen by approximately 1.4–1.5°C. According to the researchers, the region now ranks among the fastest-warming areas worldwide.
These rising temperatures are creating additional climate risks for major olive oil producers, particularly through the potential intensification of droughts and moisture shortages. According to the International Olive Council (IOC), global olive oil production reached approximately 3.57 million tons in the 2024/25 marketing year, including around 1.42 million tons produced in Spain. Consequently, shifts in Mediterranean climate conditions have significant implications for the stability of global olive oil production and trade flows.
Against the backdrop of these findings, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) issued a new warning regarding the acceleration of global warming. According to the agency, current government climate policies could put the world on a trajectory toward a 2.8°C increase in average global temperatures by the end of the century compared with pre-industrial levels. This would significantly exceed the goals of the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep global warming well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.
UNEP emphasized that substantial reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions are essential to limit further temperature increases. Specifically, returning global warming to no more than 1.5°C by the end of the century would require emissions cuts of 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025 levels. For the global olive oil market, increasing climate risks in the Mediterranean mean that weather conditions will play a growing role in determining olive yields, production stability, and price formation.
Source: UkrAgroConsult