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Global fishmeal production is projected to slide below 4.6 million tons by 2026, marking its lowest output since 2016. Concurrently, fish oil production is anticipated to hit 1.15 million tons, also representing a 10-year low. According to reports from UkrAgroConsult and Oils & Fats International, citing data from the International Marine Ingredients Organisation (IFFO), the primary catalyst for these downward revisions is the tightening supply of raw materials from Peru, a dominant global producer in this sector.
Statistics from IFFO reveal that fishmeal production across monitored countries plummeted by 45% between January and August 2026 compared to the previous year, while fish oil output contracted by 26%. The most significant impact was observed in Peru, which accounts for roughly 20% of global supply. Production there has been hampered by the closure of the fishing season in its north-central regions. Furthermore, the El Niño weather phenomenon remains a critical risk factor, as it could lead to sustained warming of coastal waters and further disrupt marine life.
Performance in other regions remains varied. In August, raw material intake showed resilience in Chile, Spain, and the United States due to improved catches, allowing total figures for that month to surpass the previous year. Conversely, supply remained constrained across Africa, Iceland, and the North Atlantic, while volumes in Denmark and Norway were relatively stable. IFFO forecasts suggest that fishmeal derived from pelagic and demersal species will reach approximately 3.6 million tons, with fish oil from these sources estimated at 605,000 tons.
In China, a major consumer of marine ingredients, market conditions are equally strained. By late September, stocks of imported fishmeal continued to dwindle, remaining significantly below historical averages. The expected recovery in China's domestic production following the lifting of seasonal fishing bans was underwhelming. This global supply deficit is poised to increase pricing pressure on the feed ingredients market, particularly for the aquaculture sector, likely driving intensified interest in alternative proteins such as soybean meal.
While increased processing of species like salmon and pangasius may offer some support to fish oil volumes, the final global figures will hinge on fishing productivity throughout the remainder of 2026. Enrico Bachis, Market Research Director at IFFO, noted that while future fishing activity could still shift these forecasts, the combination of Peruvian supply shortages and low Chinese inventories remains a primary risk for the global industry.
Source: UkrAgroConsult