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Carapelli Firenze has released its analysis for the 2026-2027 olive oil campaign in Italy, forecasting a national production of approximately 250,000 tonnes. This anticipated reduction is attributed to the natural phenomenon of alternate bearing combined with limited water availability in critical southern production hubs, including Puglia, Calabria, and Sicily. For the Tuscan company, the primary challenge of the upcoming season lies in managing raw material variability to maintain the high quality and sensory standards expected by global consumers.
In a climate context marked by rapid shifts, Carapelli is positioning supply chain flexibility as its core strategic response. By leveraging an extensive network and deep expertise in regional olive varieties, the firm is enhancing its ability to select and purchase only those batches that meet rigorous quality controls. The company aims to ensure taste harmony and product stability despite the uneven nature of the harvest across different regional areas.
Anna Cane, Scientific & Public Affairs Director of Carapelli Firenze, highlighted the importance of responsiveness in the current environment. She stated that by promptly adapting sourcing criteria and utilizing the synergy between different cultivars, the company can turn geographical production shifts into a quality guarantee. However, Cane noted that individual corporate agility is not enough, calling for broader cooperation between farmers, olive mills, and industrial players to safeguard the entire sector during this period of climatic stress.
Environmental conditions during the summer of 2026 provided some quality benefits, as high temperatures limited the proliferation of the olive fruit fly across Italy. This lack of pests ensures healthier fruit, which is essential for producing oils with exceptionally low acidity and peroxide levels. Conversely, the prolonged drought has impacted fruit development and phenolic profiles. To preserve bioactive properties and freshness, Carapelli has implemented weekly monitoring of fruit maturity and moved harvesting dates forward.
The 2026-2027 production map across the Mediterranean shows significant divergence. Spain is experiencing a robust recovery, with output expected to reach 1.6 million tonnes (a 23% increase) following rainfall in Andalusia. Turkey is also seeing a significant rebound toward 400,000 tonnes, while Greece remains on an upward trend with 280,000 tonnes projected. In contrast, Tunisia is facing a production decline to 300,000 tonnes due to the dry climate and alternate bearing cycles.
Source: Distribuzione Moderna