Lang
WINNIPEG — Major Canadian agricultural exports, including canola oil, canola meal and beef, have so far escaped the escalating tariff war between Canada and the United States, but food industry experts warn that protection from U.S. duties is far from guaranteed.
Speaking to The Western Producer, Sylvain Charlebois, director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University and host of The Food Professor podcast, warned that President Donald Trump could widen the scope of his trade offensive to include Canada's most valuable agri-food commodities. 'I do think that everything is on the table for (Trump),' Charlebois said. 'It's troubling to see the White House go after our liquor business, going after dairy… and absolutely, crops could be next. Livestock could be next.'
A former senior figure in Canada's canola industry, who spent decades in the crushing business, agreed that new tariffs on canola products cannot be ruled out. Speaking on condition of anonymity because he retains ties to the sector, he said a duty on canola oil or meal 'would be devastating for Western Canada. Canola value would crater, quite a bit… crush (volumes) would go down. (We) would export more seed to China.'
As of late September, the bilateral trade dispute has centred on Canada's retaliatory 25 percent tariffs on roughly C$28 billion of U.S. goods — including honey, dairy and a wide range of consumer products — which came into force on September 8. The White House's reciprocal measures, including additional tariffs and certain import restrictions on Canadian merchandise, are scheduled to take effect on September 29.
Despite the tit-for-tat exchange, several of Canada's largest agri-food exports remain untouched. According to industry data, in 2025 Canada's oilseed crushers shipped C$4.2 billion worth of canola oil and C$1.4 billion of canola meal to the United States. Canola oil shipments have risen steadily since 2020, driven largely by strong demand from America's renewable fuel sector. Together with beef and live cattle, these products account for nearly C$10 billion in annual cross-border trade.
Industry observers attribute the exemption to a combination of economic reality and effective lobbying. In June, 160 American farm and agricultural organizations signed a joint letter to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, urging renewal of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA/USMCA). 'CUSMA/USMCA… creates stability and predictability — all vital elements that farmers and businesses need to plan for the future,' the letter stated. Analysts believe coordinated pressure from these groups in Washington has helped keep critical Canadian commodities off the tariff list.
Canada, for its part, has taken a similarly measured approach. Although the United States exports more than a billion dollars' worth of ethanol to Canada each year, that product has likewise been left out of the retaliatory tariffs.
Ian Sheldon, an agricultural economist and trade specialist at Ohio State University, noted that any duty on Canadian beef, canola oil or other staple products would be acutely inflationary. 'Three-quarters of voters are very unhappy with the tariffs that the U.S. has put in place,' Sheldon said, adding that grocery prices rank as the top concern for most American consumers.
D'Arce McMillan, the former markets editor of The Western Producer, also cautioned that political volatility poses a structural risk for Canada's canola crushing sector. The United States is the dominant buyer of Canadian canola oil, absorbing between 80 and 90 percent of national production. That concentration, McMillan wrote, is a vulnerability that oilseed crushers can no longer ignore. 'In the age of president Donald Trump, it must cause some unease in corporate board rooms,' he said.
The former canola industry leader described a worst-case scenario in which tariffs or shifts in U.S. renewable fuel policy would leave Canadian crushers with few alternatives. 'If you look at the stats (on canola oil), we've abandoned every other export market,' he noted. With domestic processors now consuming roughly 65 percent of the Canadian crop, any disruption in U.S. demand would translate directly into lower farmgate prices for canola seed. He added that redirecting Canadian policy to support greater use of canola oil in renewable fuels could be effective but would take years to implement.
Public sentiment is also complicating the picture. Provincial bans on American liquor — broadcast on local television in cities such as Columbus, Ohio, often showing Jack Daniel's being pulled from Canadian shelves in favour of Crown Royal — have stoked cross-border resentment. On the Canadian side, broad public support exists for a firm government response to U.S. trade aggression.
Looking ahead, analysts caution that the longer the dispute continues, the greater the risk of collateral damage to canola and other agricultural trade flows. 'I'm very worried about the long run stability of (CUSMA) and what would be lost,' Sheldon said. 'The U.S. and Canada have had great trade relations (for decades).… To undermine the integrated nature of the North America relationship… would probably be bad for everybody.'
Source: The Western Producer