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Australia's oilseed production, dominated by canola, is expected to continue delivering strong results for a fifth consecutive season, with output forecast to reach 6.15 million tonnes in 2025-2026, according to a report from the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).
If realised, this estimate would put canola production 3.5% higher than in 2024-2025, marking the third-largest crop in Australia's history, the report said. This year-on-year growth is mainly attributed to a slight increase in planted area and yield, as land recovers from a dry and difficult season across most canola-growing regions in 2024-2025.
The service said:
"Soil moisture at the start of the planting season is slightly better than last year, thanks to early autumn rains."
It added that:
"One factor keeping planted area stable is Australian farmers' commitment to strict crop rotation programmes, which have grown increasingly important over the years. These rotations are crucial for managing weeds and disease, as well as boosting overall productivity."
Canola exports are expected to fall by 4% to 4.65 million tonnes, following an anticipated 18% increase in domestic crush volume to 1.3 million tonnes.
By contrast, canola oil exports are expected to rise by 26% to reach 290,000 tonnes, an all-time high.
If achieved, this would be the fifth-largest canola export volume in Australia's history, with the previous four seasons having recorded higher exports, reflecting the strong production levels of recent years.
Australia currently has six canola crushing facilities in the states of New South Wales and Victoria, which are among the most densely populated states and have the highest domestic demand for canola oil. There are also two smaller facilities in Western Australia.
Industry sources said total crushing capacity has risen in recent years from around 1.3 million tonnes to 1.6 million tonnes, according to the FAS report.
The service explained that:
"Consecutive years of high canola production, combined with rising global canola oil prices, have encouraged plants to expand their production capacity."
Canola meal production is expected to rise by 18% to reach 754,000 tonnes in 2025-2026, compared with an estimated 638,000 tonnes in 2024-2025, marking the highest level of meal production ever recorded in Australia.
Canola meal is a high-quality, protein-rich supplement, particularly valued for its high content of rumen-undegradable protein, making it ideal for livestock feed.
In tandem with the expected increase in crushing volume, canola oil production is projected to rise to 546,000 tonnes, up 20% compared with an estimated 456,000 tonnes the previous year.
The report concluded by noting that:
"Trade disruptions resulting from the imposition of tariffs on Canadian canola oil by the United States and China are expected to shift global demand, opening up new opportunities for Australian canola processors."
It added:
"With the expansion of the country's production capacity, Australia is well positioned to seize these opportunities and increase its canola oil exports over the coming year."
Source: The Western Producer