Bank of America (BofA) has maintained its bearish outlook on soymeal markets, while forecasting a strongly bullish path for soybean oil as the market heads into 2026.
Here are the details of the outlook for the soy complex:
1. Market Trends and the Raw Material (Soybeans)
- Key drivers: Price direction will depend heavily on Chinese buying behaviour and US export flows in the coming months.
- Short term: If China proceeds with its planned purchases of 12 million tonnes of US soybeans, prices could hold at current levels for the time being.
- Long term (second half of 2026): The bank expects soybean prices to decline, citing forecasts of strong supplies from South American producers.
2. A Positive Outlook for Soybean OilThe long-term bearish view on beans and meal stands in sharp contrast to the bank's positive outlook for the oil:
- Soybean oil enters 2026 with "strong demand expectations and tight supplies, and therefore a strongly bullish outlook."
- The report cautioned that further upside remains contingent on pending regulatory frameworks that could affect the market.
