The Soybean Triangle: China Between Washington's Commitments and Brazil's Record Crop

In the first article in this series we looked at the full picture of the oilseed market, and in the second article we followed US soybean oil into fuel tanks. In this article we turn to the soybean itself, and to the world trade that the WASDE report released on 10 November 2026 expects to reach 192.6 million tonnes in 2026/27.

This trade is governed by a triangle of three players: China buys about 60% of world imports, Brazil sells about 61% of world exports, and the United States sells about 24%. Whatever happens between the sides of this triangle, commercially and politically, shows up in the prices of soybeans, meal and oil for every importer in the world.

The numbers: who sells and who buys

* November 2026 projections. Source: WASDE-677 (Brazil and Argentina marketing years adjusted to October–September); shares calculated by Zyot W Dhon.

China: one buyer, two decisions

The report expects China's imports to rise to 115 million tonnes, an increase of only 2 million tonnes on last season, matched by a similar rise in crush. But the key question is not how much China will buy, but from where.

After China stopped buying US soybeans between June and late October 2025 because of the trade dispute, the White House announced that China had committed to buy at least 25 million tonnes of US soybeans a year from 2026 to 2028. It has never been clearly specified whether this commitment is measured by calendar year or by marketing year, and Beijing has not officially confirmed the US figures.

Buying behaviour shows that China in effect acts through two separate decisions: state-owned firms buy US soybeans to deliver on political commitments, while private and multinational crushers keep buying from Brazil based on price and margin. China's purchases of US cargoes scheduled for shipment between October 2026 and March 2027 exceeded 16 million tonnes, according to Fastmarkets' tracking, before slowing in early November, which pushed Chicago soybean futures to an 11-week low.

In terms of actual arrivals, Chinese customs data show that China imported 86.18 million tonnes of soybeans in the first nine months of 2026, of which 65.84 million tonnes came from Brazil (about 76%) and only 11.06 million tonnes from the United States (about 13%), down 34% from the same period a year earlier.

China holds an important card in this balance: its soybean stocks of about 44.3 million tonnes represent nearly 36% of world stocks and are enough to cover about five months of crush. Those stocks give it considerable flexibility over when it buys and where it buys from.

The United States: exports recover, but dependence on China grows

The report raises US soybean exports for 2026/27 to 1.72 billion bushels (about 46.8 million tonnes), up 13.5% from last season but still about 9% below the 2024/25 level. If China does buy 25 million tonnes, it alone would take about 53% of projected US exports, leaving a large part of US demand hostage to a political decision.

At the same time, a growing share of the US crop stays at home: domestic crush of 2.78 billion bushels far exceeds exports, driven by demand for oil for biofuels, as we explained in the second article. The report expects the average price received by US farmers to rise to $12.10 per bushel (about $445 per tonne), up 15% from last season.

Brazil: a record crop and more diverse buyers

The report puts Brazil's 2026/27 crop at about 186 million tonnes and its exports at about 118 million tonnes, up 14% over two seasons. Brazilian estimates are slightly more cautious: the national supply company Conab expects a record 181.6 million tonnes, with the slowest expansion in planted area in two decades.

Planting of the new crop reached 64% of the target area by 5 November 2026, compared with 61% a year earlier, according to the consultancy AgRural, despite irregular rainfall in the Cerrado and excess moisture in the south. The new crop will start reaching export channels from January.

Notably, Brazil no longer depends on China to the same extent as before: China's share of Brazilian soybean exports fell to 69% in the first half of 2026 from 75% a year earlier, according to StoneX. In other words, larger volumes of Brazilian soybeans are now heading to other markets.

What does this mean for other importers?

• Opportunities in Brazilian offers: the more US soybeans China's state firms absorb for political reasons, the larger the share of Brazilian beans available to other buyers, especially during Brazil's harvest season from February to May.
• Prices that move on political headlines: Chinese purchase announcements and leaders' summits have become a direct driver of Chicago prices, adding hard-to-predict volatility to buying decisions.
• Fragile flows: the 2025 experience, when Chinese purchases from the United States stopped for months, is a reminder that trade routes can change within weeks, which makes the case for diversifying sources.
• Meal and oil: China's decisions on domestic crush determine how much meal and oil it needs from world markets, and so also affect importers of these two products.

What we are watching until the December report

• US export sales announcements to China and how close they come to the 25 million tonne target.
• Weather in Brazil's growing regions in December and January, and the pace at which planting is completed.
• Crush margins in China and soybean meal demand from the feed sector.
• Chinese customs data for October and November and the split of imports by origin.
• The next WASDE report on 10 December 2026.

In the next article in this series we turn to the fourth corner of the soybean market: Argentina, the world's largest exporter of soybean oil and meal.

Sources: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-677), US Department of Agriculture, 10 November 2026; General Administration of Customs of China; Brazil's National Supply Company (Conab); AgRural; StoneX; Fastmarkets. Calculations and analysis: Zyot W Dhon.