From Table to Fuel Tank: How Biofuels Turned the US into a Net Soybean Oil Importer

In the first article in this series, we saw how the world is harvesting a record oilseed crop while the vegetable oil market grows tighter. At the heart of that paradox stands one player: US soybean oil. The United States, the world's second-largest soybean oil producer after China, is crushing record volumes of soybeans. Yet the WASDE report released on 10 November 2026 expects it to import more soybean oil than it exports in 2026/27: about 318,000 tonnes of imports against only 181,000 tonnes of exports.

How did one of the world's largest soybean producers reach this point? The short answer is biofuels. In this article we follow where US soybean oil goes today, and why that matters to every oil importer outside the United States.

The numbers: production rises, exports all but disappear

US soybean oil production rises to about 14.9 million tonnes in 2026/27, up 13% from 2024/25, supported by a record crush of 2.78 billion bushels (about 75.7 million tonnes of soybeans). But all of that increase, and more, goes into biofuels.

* November 2026 projections. Source: WASDE-677, converted from million pounds to thousand tonnes; the price is the average for crude soybean oil, Decatur (47.59, 64.08 and 68 cents per pound) converted to dollars per tonne. Conversions by Zyot W Dhon.

In just two seasons, soybean oil use in biofuels has risen 51%, taking about 54% of US production compared with 40% in 2024/25. In the opposite direction, exports have fallen from 8.5% of production to only 1.2%. Use in food, feed and other industries falls by about 2% this season, after the report cut its estimate by about 45,000 tonnes this month.

Three policies driving demand

This shift is not the result of market forces alone. Behind it stands a package of US policies that pushes domestic soybean oil towards fuel tanks:

• The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS): in March 2026 the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finalised the highest blending volumes in the programme's history for 2026 and 2027, estimating that biodiesel and renewable diesel production would need to rise by more than 60% from 2025 levels to meet them. It also decided to reallocate 70% of the volumes exempted for small refineries in earlier years into the new requirements.
• Half value for imported feedstocks: the agency also announced that, from 2028, imported fuels and feedstocks will receive only half the compliance value of US-made products, giving domestic soybean oil a clear advantage over imported used cooking oil and tallow.
• The 45Z tax credit: this incentive rewards fuel producers according to the carbon footprint of their fuel. US Internal Revenue Service guidance issued in September 2026 confirmed that eligible feedstocks are limited to the United States, Canada and Mexico, excluding fuel made from used cooking oil imported from elsewhere.

The result showed up quickly in the data: US biofuel producers consumed a record 1.687 billion pounds (about 765,000 tonnes) of soybean oil in July 2026 alone, up 52% year on year, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

At whose expense? Food, exports and stocks

When fuel demand rises this fast, the oil has to come from somewhere. The US balance sheet shows three sources:

• Exports: exports fall from 1.12 million tonnes in 2024/25 to only 181,000 tonnes, meaning the United States has effectively left the soybean oil export market.
• Food: use in food and other industries falls by about 2% after rising last season, a sign that higher prices have started to weigh on the food sector.
• Imports and stocks: imports rise to about 318,000 tonnes, and the stocks-to-use ratio falls from 5.9% in 2024/25 to about 5.1%. Soybean oil stocks held by members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) fell in September 2026 to their lowest level since 2014.

The other side of the equation: a meal surplus

Every bushel crushed for oil also yields about four times the oil's weight in meal. So the 13.7% rise in crush over two seasons, driven by oil demand, floods the market with meal. The report expects US soybean meal exports to reach a record of about 20.6 million tonnes in 2026/27, while the meal price stays flat at $340 per short ton.

As we explained in the first article, oil now accounts for about half the value of crush products in the United States. That means US crushers' decision to run at full capacity is now tied more to the oil price than to meal, and that cheap US meal will compete with Argentine and Brazilian meal in feed markets around the world. Capacity keeps expanding: in October 2026 CHS began building a new $770 million crush plant in Wisconsin, expected to produce about 1 billion pounds of soybean oil a year when it is completed in 2028.

Prices: between Washington and crude oil

Soybean oil's link to fuel has made it more sensitive to two factors that have nothing to do with crops: policy decisions in Washington and crude oil prices. In early September 2026, CBOT soybean oil futures rose 7.2% in three sessions, with the December contract settling at 72.63 cents per pound, after the agency's decision on small refinery exemptions and their reallocation. The same contract then fell back to 63.53 cents per pound on 4 November, as crude oil prices dropped sharply.

Notably, that level is clearly below the 68 cents per pound (about $1,500 per tonne) season average the report projects, even after it was cut by 2 cents this month. If crude oil prices keep falling, further revisions to the soybean oil price may follow in coming reports.

What does this mean for oil importers outside the United States?

• Supply: the world's exportable soybean oil is now mainly in the hands of Argentina and Brazil, making South American export policies and weather more important for importers than ever.
• Pricing: even though the United States is no longer a meaningful exporter, CBOT remains the benchmark for pricing Argentine and Brazilian soybean oil through basis premiums. US biofuel decisions therefore pass straight through to importers' bills in Asia, Africa and the Middle East.
• Risk management: tracking EPA decisions and crude oil prices has become part of the buying decision, just like tracking weather and crops, which makes the case for hedging and for diversifying between soybean, palm and sunflower oils.
• Feed: on the positive side, the US meal surplus benefits feed and poultry producers in importing countries.

What we are watching until the December report

• NOPA's monthly report on October soybean crush and oil stocks.
• US Energy Information Administration data on feedstock use in biofuel production.
• Any new decisions on small refinery exemptions.
• The direction of crude oil prices and its effect on biodiesel producers' margins.
• The next WASDE report on 10 December 2026, and whether it keeps biofuel use at 17.8 billion pounds.

In the next article in this series we turn to the other side of soybeans: world trade between the United States, China and Brazil.

Sources: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-677), US Department of Agriculture, 10 November 2026; US Environmental Protection Agency; US Internal Revenue Service; US Energy Information Administration; National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA). Calculations and analysis: Zyot W Dhon.