AI Enters the Olive Oil Sector: A Promising Tool for Production Forecasting and Market Stability in the Face of Climate Change

A new scientific development, led by a research team from the Polytechnic University of Madrid (UPM) in collaboration with the company AgrowingData and the Higher Technical School of Engineering (ICAI) at the Comillas Pontifical University, has resulted in an advanced model based on artificial intelligence to improve the forecasting of olive and olive oil production. This confirms that the future of olive grove management will be increasingly linked to digital technologies and AI.

The smart model relies on integrating several data sources, including:

• Sentinel-2 satellite imagery.
• Climatic data such as temperatures and rainfall amounts.
• Soil characteristics.

The goal of this integration is to analyze the response of olive trees to different environmental conditions and estimate future production with high accuracy. The study was conducted on more than 1,100 agricultural plots in the Spanish province of Córdoba, one of the world's most important olive oil production regions. Huge amounts of agricultural and climatic data were analyzed to build predictive models that are more accurate and adaptable to actual field conditions.

Relying on "Thermal Time" Instead of the Agricultural Calendar

Among the most prominent innovations presented by the study is the use of the "thermal time" index or what is known as Growing Degree Days (GDD). This is a measure based on the accumulated heat the trees are exposed to during the growing season, instead of traditional reliance on fixed dates in the agricultural calendar.

This system allows for a better understanding of the olive tree growth cycle and compares different seasons, even amidst large variations resulting from climate change, drought, and high temperatures. The results also showed a strong correlation between vegetation patterns observed via satellites, rainfall amounts during certain stages of the season, and the expected production volume of olives and olive oil.

Global Importance for the Olive Sector

This technology acquires special importance at the global level, as the olive sector faces unprecedented challenges due to global warming and the recurrence of droughts and extreme heatwaves, especially in Mediterranean countries which account for more than 95% of global olive production.

During recent years, global olive oil markets have witnessed sharp fluctuations in production and prices as a result of climatic changes, directly affecting producers, exporters, and consumers. Therefore, possessing accurate tools for crop forecasting months before the harvest season gives stakeholders greater ability to plan and achieve market stability.

Special Importance for the Arab Region

The Arab region is considered one of the world's most important olive-producing areas, as countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt possess millions of trees planted over vast areas. Olives also represent a primary source of income for hundreds of thousands of farmers and rural families.

However, recent years have seen a clear increase in the impact of climate change on Arab olive production, with some regions suffering from:

• Decreased rainfall rates.
• Rising temperatures during the flowering and fruit setting periods.
• Recurrence of droughts and production fluctuations between one year and another.
• Increased pressure on water resources.

Under these conditions, artificial intelligence models and remote sensing can constitute a qualitative shift in the management of the Arab olive sector.

‍

Special Importance for the Arab Region

The Arab region is considered one of the world's most important olive-producing areas, as countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt possess millions of trees planted over vast areas. Olives also represent a primary source of income for hundreds of thousands of farmers and rural families.

However, recent years have seen a clear increase in the impact of climate change on Arab olive production, with some regions suffering from:

• Decreased rainfall rates.
• Rising temperatures during the flowering and fruit setting periods.
• Recurrence of droughts and production fluctuations between one year and another.
• Increased pressure on water resources.

Under these conditions, artificial intelligence models and remote sensing can constitute a qualitative shift in the management of the Arab olive sector.

How Can This Development Be Utilized in the Arab Region?

This technology can be employed in Arab countries in several strategic ways, most importantly:

1. Early Crop Forecasting: The ability to estimate the expected production volume several months before the harvest season, helping governments, agricultural cooperatives, and factories in advance planning.
2. Market and Price Stability: When accurate estimates of expected production are available, necessary precautions can be taken to avoid supply shortages or large surpluses, thus limiting price fluctuations and protecting both the consumer and the farmer simultaneously.
3. Improving Water Management: Satellite images and climatic indicators help identify areas most exposed to water stress, contributing to directing irrigation programs more efficiently and reducing water waste.
4. Supporting Decisions for Mills and Bottling Companies: Olive mills and factories can plan in advance for operational capacity, labor, storage, and marketing based on future production forecasts.
5. Enhancing Exports: Early production forecasting helps in preparing more accurate export plans and making advance trade agreements with international markets, enhancing the competitive ability of Arab producing countries.

Expected Economic Gains

It is expected that this technology will achieve great economic benefits for the Arab olive sector, including:

• Reducing losses resulting from inaccurate production estimates.
• Improving supply chain management and raising the efficiency of agricultural resource use.
• Increasing farmer profitability and supporting food security.
• Stabilizing olive oil prices in local and global markets.
• Enhancing investments in the smart agricultural sector.

The Future of the Olive Sector in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

This research represents an important step towards building smart agricultural systems capable of adapting to rapid climatic changes. With continuous development in satellite technologies, artificial intelligence, and big data analysis, it has become possible to move from traditional farm management to proactive management based on accurate scientific forecasts.

For the Arab region, adopting such technologies is no longer a luxury choice, but a strategic necessity to ensure the sustainability of olive production, maintain market stability, and achieve greater economic returns for farmers and industries associated with this vital sector.

Conclusion:The integration of artificial intelligence with satellite images and climatic data opens new horizons for the Arab olive sector, as it can be used to forecast annual production with a high degree of accuracy. This approach contributes to making proactive decisions that limit the effects of climate change, maintain market balance, support price stability, and enhance food security and sustainable economic development.

‍

‍