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A record South American soybean harvest is expected to weigh heavily on global soybean prices and other processed oilseed products. However, amid rising consumption, stocks of 17 types of vegetable oils and fats could fall to their lowest level in four years, according to analysts at Oil World in Germany.
To balance the market, increased soybean processing will be needed, with global soybean stocks expected to climb to a new record of between 124 and 125 million tonnes in the 2025/2026 season. Even so, the stocks-to-use ratio remains high at around 29%.
Consumption of all types of oils will rise by 7.4 million tonnes a year, which will reduce stocks to a four-year low of 33.8 million tonnes by the end of the 2025/2026 season.
Meal production will increase by 1.9 million tonnes amid higher processing volumes, including gains in rapeseed meal and sunflower meal of around 0.7 million tonnes each. Global soybean meal output could reach a new record of 287.1 million tonnes.
Analysts also point to a 10 to 15% increase in prices for the main types of meal during November.
Source: OleoScope