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Analysts said on Thursday that Ukrainian corn, a key component of the country’s grain sector, could benefit from tariffs imposed by the United States, as it may partly replace US corn if retaliatory measures are imposed.
The US president announced tariffs of at least 10% on most imports, with much higher duties on goods from dozens of countries, including China. This could prompt countermeasures that may raise prices and reduce demand for US commodities.
Ukraine is one of the world’s major corn producers and exporters.
Agricultural consultancy ASAP Agri said in a statement: “If major importers do impose tariffs on US corn, it would open a significant window of opportunity for alternative suppliers.”
It added: “Ukrainian corn is in a strong position in this context: competitive prices, stable logistics, and close ties with the European Union and Asian markets.”
The consultancy said Brazil is best placed to fill the gap, but cannot cover total demand, creating an opportunity for Ukraine to participate and capture market share.
Separately, consultancy Barva Invest said Ukraine sees the United States as a competitor in grain and oilseed markets rather than as a trade partner, and that potential restrictions by other countries on US exports would have the greatest impact.
It added that the European Union, Australia, and China are the most likely to impose such measures, opening strategic opportunities for Ukraine in markets where it competes directly with the United States.
Barva Invest said on Telegram: “These markets primarily include corn, soybeans, and wheat, and to a lesser extent rapeseed, sunflower oil, and barley.”
According to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB), Ukraine produced 32 million metric tonnes of corn in 2023 and 26 million tonnes in 2024.
The country exported around 30 million tonnes in the 2023–2024 season and is expected to export 22 million tonnes in 2024–2025.
Farmers are likely to increase corn acreage this year because of profitable export prices.
Ukraine also harvested a record soybean crop of 6.2 million tonnes in 2024, with around half expected to be exported this season.
Ukraine’s soybean production in 2025 may range between 5.8 million and 6.2 million tonnes, depending on rainfall in May and June.
Source: Reuters