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Ukraine's Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi has indicated that retail prices of sunflower oil in Ukrainian supermarkets could decline within the next three months, provided that ongoing port blockades and export restrictions persist and sunflower seed prices continue their downward trajectory.
Speaking with journalists, Vysotskyi explained that any reduction in raw material costs would translate into lower consumer prices, though with a lag of up to three months. The minister's forecast hinges on two key conditions: the continuation of the maritime blockade and export limitations, and the continued decline in seed prices that began with the new harvest at the start of September.
According to Vysotskyi, Ukrainian producers currently hold sufficient sunflower oil inventories to meet domestic demand. Stocks are being maintained at the warehouses of processing companies and retail suppliers, ensuring that the local market remains well supplied.
Even as Russian strikes continue to target oil and fat industry facilities, Ukraine retains adequate production capacity. Industry data shows that more than 20 million tonnes of raw materials are available for processing, while domestic consumption stands at approximately 16 million tonnes, leaving a comfortable surplus.
The risk of further disruptions remains tangible. Russian forces recently struck the Oleina plant in Dnipro for the second time since the start of the full-scale invasion, underscoring the vulnerability of the country's processing infrastructure.
If export restrictions remain in place and sunflower seed prices continue to fall, the resulting decline in production costs is expected to feed through to retail prices within a three-month window.
Source: mezha.net