Advertise
Turkey is on course to harvest its largest olive crop on record, with output projected to climb 55% in the coming season, a development that could propel the country into the position of the world's second-largest olive oil producer. Industry leaders caution, however, that US tariff adjustments and rising production costs are dimming the outlook for what should otherwise be a landmark campaign.
After a decade of steady expansion, roughly 200 million olive trees are now under cultivation across Turkish plantations, providing the foundation for the projected bumper season. The 2026/2027 olive crop is estimated at 3.8 million mt, up 55% year-on-year, and is expected to translate into a record olive oil output of 400,000 mt.
Despite the record volumes, Turkish exporters are running into headwinds on the international market. Adjusted US tariffs are placing Turkish olive oil shipments at a competitive disadvantage compared with flows from Spain, Italy and Tunisia.
Mustafa Kürlek, Chairman of the Ayvalık Chamber of Commerce Young Entrepreneurs Board and Chairman of the Board of Köklü Olive Oil, noted that approximately 28% of Turkey's olive oil exports are destined for the United States. Beyond the tariff adjustments, the Turkish industry is grappling with rising costs across multiple fronts, which are pushing production costs higher. In many Turkish regions, harvesting still relies heavily on manual labour, driving up costs compared with countries such as Spain, where mechanised methods predominate.
Kürlek stressed that Turkey needs to strengthen its profile as a country of origin to bolster its market position, while also pointing to significant untapped potential in the domestic consumer market. Even with the record production, Kürlek does not anticipate price increases for Turkish olive oil this year; on the contrary, prices are expected to come in around 30% lower than last year.
EU EXPORTS DECLINE
Olive oil shipments from the European Union continued to fall in the closing weeks of the 2025/2026 export season. Between 1 October 2025 and 20 September 2026, EU member states exported a combined 591,739 mt of olive oil (categories 1 to 5, treated and untreated), a 9% decline compared with the same period of the previous season. The value of those exports fell by just over 20% to EUR 3.345 billion, reflecting lower prices. The average export price over the period stood at EUR 5.65/kg, compared with EUR 6.42/kg a year earlier.
Spain remained the bloc's dominant exporter at 319,524 mt, accounting for roughly 54% of EU shipments, although that volume was 4% lower year-on-year. Italy shipped 200,600 mt (-4%), Portugal 49,696 mt (-24%) and Belgium 5,571 mt (+35%). The United States remained the largest single destination, absorbing just under a third of EU exports at 180,079 mt, although that figure represented a 16% decline. Other significant destinations included the United Kingdom (54,846 mt, +4%), Brazil (52,197 mt, -20%) and Japan (30,716 mt, -1%).
EU IMPORTS SURGE
EU imports during the same period climbed to 106,983 mt of olive oil, a 66% year-on-year increase, valued at EUR 406.066 million (+43% year-on-year). Tunisia supplied 47% of those shipments, equivalent to 52,052 mt, with a further 31% originating in Morocco. Turkey's contribution was marginal at just 518 mt worth EUR 3.74 million, down roughly 67% in volume and 63% in value compared with the same period a year earlier. Spain was the largest single importer, taking in 55,565 mt from third countries, while Italy imported 37,214 mt.
PACKAGING, DELIVERY UNITS AND INCOTERMS
Offers are specified by the seller not only by packaging type (bag, carton, bucket, canister, etc.) but also by delivery units. Both the minimum purchase quantity and availability are expressed in delivery units. A delivery unit may consist, for example, of an outer carton containing eight canisters suitable for postal dispatch, or a Euro pallet holding 25 bags. If a seller sets a minimum purchase of four delivery units, this corresponds to four cartons of eight canisters each, or four pallets of 25 bags each.
Incoterms are internationally recognised trade clauses that streamline cross-border trade through standardised contract formulas. They allocate costs and obligations between buyer and seller, helping prevent misunderstandings and disputes, and must always be agreed by both parties and confirmed in the contract. A general overview:
EXW (Ex-Works): The seller makes the goods available at a named location such as a factory or warehouse. The buyer arranges loading and transport and bears all costs and risks from that point.
FCA (Free Carrier): The seller delivers the goods to the buyer's carrier at a location specified by the buyer and handles export customs clearance. Risk transfers once the goods are handed over to the carrier.
FOB (Free on Board): The seller assumes all costs and risks until the goods are loaded onto the vessel and handles export clearance. Risk transfers once the goods are on board.
CIF (Cost, Insurance and Freight): The seller covers costs and risks up to loading, bears packaging and freight charges, and insures against the buyer's risk of loss or damage in transit to the destination port.
DAP (Delivered at Place): The seller assumes costs and risks for transport to an agreed address.
DAT (Delivered at Terminal): The seller makes the goods available, cleared for import, at the terminal of the named port of destination at the agreed time.
CPT (Carriage Paid To): The seller delivers the goods, cleared for export, to a carrier at the agreed place; risk passes at that point, but the seller bears freight costs to the named destination.
DDP (Delivered Duty Paid): The seller delivers the goods to a named destination at its own risk and expense, handling all formalities, costs and import duties.
CFR (Cost and Freight): The seller bears all costs and risks up to loading, concludes the transport contract and covers freight to the named port of destination.
CIP (Carriage and Insurance Paid To): The seller delivers the goods to a carrier or other named person at an agreed location, bearing costs, risks and freight insurance to the specified destination. The buyer handles import procedures and duties.
FAS (Free Alongside Ship): The seller places the goods alongside the vessel at the named port; the buyer assumes all costs and risks from that point, including loading.
Source: Mundus Agri