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Tunisia's olive oil industry – a key pillar of its agricultural exports – is facing renewed pressure as the 90-day tariff exemption granted by the United States nears its expiry in July. The warning comes from the Tunisian Observatory of the Economy (OTE), which published a report on 19 June 2025 outlining the risks facing this strategic sector should new US tariffs come into force.
Tunisia relies heavily on the US market for its olive oil exports, with the United States accounting for more than 28% of export volume and around 29% of export value. According to Trade Map data, Tunisia exported around 211,525 tonnes of olive oil in 2024, generating revenues of 1.67 billion US dollars. Of that volume, 58,234 tonnes worth 480 million US dollars went to the US market.
Should the proposed tariffs take effect, Tunisian olive oil would be subject to a 28% duty, significantly weakening its competitiveness against European Union suppliers such as Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal – respectively the first, second, sixth and seventh largest suppliers to the US market – which are expected to face a lower tariff of just 20% by virtue of their EU membership.
In addition, Tunisia would lose competitive ground to emerging exporters such as Turkey, Argentina and Morocco, which are expected to be subject to a much lower tariff of just 10%.
Beyond the direct impact on Tunisian exports to the US market, the Tunisian Observatory of the Economy warned of possible indirect repercussions on trade relations with European partners.
If Spanish and Italian olive oil exports to the United States decline as a result of the new tariffs, these countries could also cut back on their bulk purchases of Tunisian olive oil, which they typically reprocess and re-export. Trade Map data shows that Spain and Italy alone accounted for around 53% of Tunisia's olive oil exports in 2024, totalling an estimated 111,750 tonnes.
This situation creates a dual risk for Tunisian producers, who could see export volumes decline to both the United States and Europe. Notably, these three markets – the United States, Spain and Italy – together account for around 80% of Tunisia's total olive oil exports.
In light of these threats, the Tunisian Observatory of the Economy called for urgent action to expand and diversify Tunisia's export markets.
Source: Al Mal Forum