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Russia's total oilseed harvest for 2026 is projected to reach an unprecedented 35 to 36.4 million tons, representing a growth of 1.9% to 5% compared to the previous year, according to analysis from UkrAgroConsult. Within this segment, sunflower seed production is expected to surge by 11% to 20%, reaching between 19.9 and 21 million tons. Rapeseed is also tracking toward a record-breaking output of 6.2 to 7 million tons, an increase of 11% to 25%. Conversely, soybean production is forecast to see a decline of 11% to 13%, settling at approximately 8 to 8.5 million tons.
Against the backdrop of significant losses in grain production, oilseeds have emerged as virtually the only profitable segment of Russian crop farming. During the July–August 2026 period, profit margins for sunflower seeds ranged between RUB 17,000 and 21,000 per ton ($213–$263/t). These figures are notably 2 to 2.5 times higher than the margins seen in the wheat sector, even during its most lucrative years.
Production costs for sunflower seeds at mid-sized farming operations are estimated at RUB 22,000 to 25,000 per ton ($275–$313/t). At the peak of the seasonal cycle, selling prices reached as high as RUB 42,000 to 46,000 per ton ($525–$575/t). This substantial gap has provided producers with a level of profitability that far exceeds that of grain crops, where prices continue to struggle under sustained market pressure.
However, the massive volume of the record harvest is already beginning to impact the domestic market. With the arrival of new-crop supplies, sunflower seed prices have started to decline by 3% to 6% weekly, dropping to between RUB 39,000 and 41,000 per ton ($488–$513/t) by October. While this trend has tightened margins to RUB 14,000–17,000 per ton ($175–$213/t), oilseeds remain the cornerstone of profitability for the Russian agricultural sector.
Source: UkrAgroConsult