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The global rapeseed market has displayed a distinct decoupling in recent sessions, with physical cash prices in Europe remaining resilient even as futures markets face downward pressure from the broader oilseed complex. While Euronext futures have eased in sympathy with Chicago soybeans, the underlying physical demand in key hubs like Germany continues to support premium price levels.
Euronext rapeseed futures fell as speculative longs were reduced amid an accelerating U.S. soybean harvest and favorable fieldwork weather. Despite this setback, the nearby November 2026 contract is still trading in the mid-€490s per tonne range, maintaining a significant cushion above last winter's lows. In contrast, German crushers in Riesa and Hamm paid up to €560/t for November deliveries this week, showing that the cash market remains largely unaffected by the volatility in the paper market. French FOB Paris quotes were similarly steady at €0.63/kg, while Ukrainian Odesa CPT grade 1 indications stabilized at €0.401/kg after a brief dip.
Import data highlights a tightening supply side within the European Union. By mid-October, EU rapeseed imports reached 1.09 million tonnes, representing a 10% year-on-year decline. Ukraine remains the primary origin, though its 486,000-tonne contribution is significantly lower than the 733,000 tonnes recorded during the same period last year. Germany currently leads the bloc’s imports from third countries at 331,000 tonnes, underscoring its central role in regional crush capacity, followed by Belgium and the Netherlands.
The broader oilseed and vegetable oil environment is also showing signs of contraction. EU soybean imports are down 3% at 3.57 million tonnes, while soymeal and palm oil imports have seen more dramatic falls of 16% and 22%, respectively. This general tightening of external supplies is providing a structural floor for rapeseed crush margins and sustaining demand for available seed.
Across the Atlantic, Chicago soybeans have pressured European prices due to favorable harvest weather, although losses were partially mitigated by robust Chinese buying, including a recent USDA-reported sale of 612,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, in Canada, ICE canola futures in Winnipeg dropped below the CAD 800/t psychological threshold as the completed harvest triggered a wave of farmer selling. However, a rally in Malaysian palm oil futures, supported by potential export duty exemptions, continues to provide a supportive backdrop for the global vegetable oil complex, preventing a deeper slide in rapeseed valuations.
المصدر: CMB News / Source: CMB News