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Spanish company Deoleo, the world’s largest olive oil producer, expects olive oil prices to fall by half in the coming months after reaching record highs.
The company said extreme weather and drought in southern Europe had significantly affected olive production in recent years, pushing prices higher.
With weather conditions improving and production increasing in the current 2024–2025 season, prices are expected to decline.
Miguel Ángel Guzmán, Deoleo’s chief sales officer, said the company expects production to improve this season, especially in major producing countries such as Spain, Greece, and Tunisia.
He said this improvement should lead to lower prices.
Guzmán added that it is not possible to say the crisis is completely over, but there are positive signs that the market is gradually stabilizing.
He noted that extra virgin olive oil still faces price volatility, but expectations point to lower prices as the harvest improves and supply increases.
According to Expana, a company specializing in agricultural market research, extra virgin olive oil prices in Spain’s Andalusia region reached €6 per kilogram on November 6.
This represented a 19% monthly decline and a 35% drop from the January peak of €9.2 per kilogram.
Guzmán said Spain, which accounts for more than 40% of global olive oil production, remains a global price reference.
He added that if weather and harvest conditions continue to improve, prices are expected to trend downward throughout 2025.
Deoleo expects olive oil prices to fall to around €5 per liter, compared with the highs of €9 to €10 in Spanish markets this year.
This suggests prices may return to more stable levels as production recovers.