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Ukrainian sunflower oil prices rose further in the first half of April 2025, extending the sharp gains that began in March. ChemAnalyst expects prices to keep climbing through the second half of April as supply-side constraints intensify and production costs rise.
During March, Ukrainian sunflower oil prices jumped sharply on the back of tightening supplies and higher production costs. The country's sunflower oil exports fell to their lowest level since the start of the 2016/2017 marketing season. Crushing activity also slowed, with numerous sunflower seed processing plants forced to shut down due to acute seed shortages. Smaller harvest volumes, combined with farmers' reluctance to release stocks onto the market, pushed seed prices higher, squeezing crushers' margins to uneconomical levels.
The rise in sunflower oil prices was further supported by higher inflation. In March, Ukraine recorded an increase in inflation that pushed up costs at every stage of the sunflower oil value chain. Under financial pressure, crushers cut back production, reducing the volume of oil available on the domestic market. The sector faced additional challenges when two major EFKO-owned plants in Russian territory were temporarily shut down, affecting the processing sector across the entire Black Sea region.
In March 2025, demand for Ukrainian sunflower oil remained steady, but shortages of refined oil prevented both domestic and international demand from being fully met. While India remained a leading importer, Ukraine struggled to expand exports due to limited processing capacity. Demand from the eurozone saw modest growth over the period, but volatile Ukrainian output prevented the country from fully capitalising on these export opportunities.
As April progresses, Ukraine's sunflower oil industry continues to face strong operational headwinds. Crushers are struggling to secure sufficient seed supplies, while refining margins have fallen to or below breakeven amid sharp price swings. With no quick resolution in sight for the raw material shortage and farmers continuing to hold back stocks, the outlook remains under pressure. ChemAnalyst expects prices to keep rising through April as the supply shortfall deepens and producers remain unable to ramp up output, keeping the market under strong upward pressure.
Source: ChemAnalyst