Lang
Eddy Martono, chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki), said the ongoing conflict between India and Pakistan has not yet had a significant impact on crude palm oil (CPO) price movements.
Speaking on Saturday, 10 May 2025, Eddy said: "We haven't felt a major impact so far, but if it drags on, it will inevitably have an effect, because India is the second-largest importer of Indonesian palm oil."
Eddy explained that Indonesia exports five million tonnes of crude palm oil annually to India and three million tonnes to Pakistan. "If the conflict between the two countries continues, demand for palm oil imports from Indonesia could fall, which would affect our stocks — and if stocks rise, prices will certainly decline," he added.
He noted that palm oil prices remain relatively high at present, at around US$1,000 per tonne. "Pakistan relies on palm oil for 90% of its needs, and exports to India — five million tonnes — represent a substantial volume, so we hope this dispute is resolved soon," he said.
Eddy pointed out that the conflict does not only threaten to push down palm oil prices on the global market, but could also lead to declines in the prices of other vegetable oils such as sunflower oil and soybean oil.
Despite the potential drop in exports to India and Pakistan, Eddy expressed optimism that demand would not fall sharply, saying: "This doesn't mean we'll lose the entire five million tonnes all at once — things don't look set to unfold that way."
Eddy stressed that Indonesia's trade balance with both India and Pakistan remains in surplus. The trade surplus with India stood at around US$14.67 billion in 2024, while the surplus with Pakistan reached US$2.9 billion in the same year. "This market is positive for both India and Pakistan, making it a promising market for Indonesia," he said.
On the morning of Wednesday, 7 May 2025, India launched missile strikes on several areas in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, causing explosions in multiple locations including Bahawalpur, Muridke, Bagh, Muzaffarabad and Kotli in the disputed region.
Pakistani military spokesman Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry told Al Jazeera that Indian missiles struck four sites in Punjab province and two in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The attacks occurred at around 1:00 am local time.
The current conflict traces back to an attack in the Baisaran Valley of the Pahalgam area in Indian-administered Kashmir on 22 April 2025, in which an armed group killed 26 people — including 25 tourists and a local horseman — after separating women from men.
India accused Pakistan of supporting, arming and training militant groups it blames for unrest in the region, while Pakistan maintained it provides only "moral and diplomatic support" to the Kashmiri separatist movement.
Following the attack, India pointed to a group called "The Resistance Front" (TRF), alleging it received backing from Pakistan — a claim Islamabad strongly denied, even as it condemned the attack and called for a "transparent, credible and impartial" investigation.
India had previously carried out strikes against Pakistan in 2016 and 2019 following attacks on its forces. Prime Minister Narendra Modi said India would pursue the perpetrators of the Kashmir attack "to the ends of the earth."
However, more than two weeks after the incident, Indian forces are still searching the forests of Kashmir for the attackers, despite the strikes carried out on border areas.
Relations between India and Pakistan have long been marked by conflict, diplomatic hostility and deep-seated mistrust, particularly over the Kashmir issue.
For years, armed insurgents in Kashmir have resisted Indian rule, with many Kashmiri Muslims demanding either union with Pakistan or an independent state.
India accuses Pakistan of supporting these armed groups, a charge Pakistan consistently denies. The conflict has claimed the lives of tens of thousands of civilians, fighters and security personnel over the past decades.