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Greece is entering the 2026/27 olive oil season against a backdrop of softening prices, a gradual recovery in consumer demand, and one pivotal question hanging over the market: how large will Spain's harvest ultimately be?
Initial estimates put Greek olive oil production between 280,000 and 330,000 tonnes, with around 300,000 tonnes emerging as the most widely cited scenario. The figures, outlined by Kostas Koutsioumpis, president of the Association of Greek Olive Oil Standardization Industries (SEVITEL), and Manolis Giannoulis, president of the National Interprofessional Olive Oil Organization, are broadly aligned.
Yet the outlook for Greek producers will depend heavily on developments in Spain. Spain had initially been expected to produce as much as 1.8 million tonnes, but those expectations have since been scaled back to between 1.4 and 1.5 million tonnes following high temperatures and drought during the summer, with parts of Andalusia reaching 42 to 44 degrees Celsius.
A very large Spanish harvest could exert significant downward pressure on international prices, while a good but not exceptional season could support greater market stability. Giannoulis estimates that if Mediterranean production increased by a further 500,000 to 700,000 tonnes, producer prices could potentially slide towards €2.50 per kilogram.
Greek extra virgin olive oil reached extraordinary levels during the height of the recent price crisis, with producer prices peaking at around €9.50 per kilogram. Today, good quality olive oil is selling at approximately €3.90 to €4.20 per kilogram, representing a decline of around 56% to 59% from the peak. According to ELSTAT data, Greece's olive oil price index fell from 240.15 in July 2024, when it touched a historic high, to 134.64 in August 2026. On an annual basis, prices were around 15% lower in August 2026. Despite the substantial correction, olive oil remains about 33% more expensive than in July 2021, before the inflationary surge accelerated.
Retail prices currently range between roughly €7.30 and €7.80 per litre, although some products are still reaching approximately €9.50.
Koutsioumpis said further reductions could follow if production estimates are confirmed: 'If production is verified, we will also have a price reduction. How much it will be, it is still too early to judge.'
For households, cheaper olive oil would offer welcome relief after years of steep food price increases. For farmers, however, the picture is considerably more complicated. The cost of producing olive oil in an organised Greek farming operation is estimated at around €3 to €3.50 per kilogram, and can reach €4 to €5 when all labour and harvesting costs are included. Giannoulis noted that daily wages, which stood at around €30 to €35 roughly five years ago, can now reach €60, €70 or even €80, while producers are simultaneously grappling with a shortage of agricultural workers.
Greater scale and mechanisation have given Spanish producers a significant cost edge, with production costs estimated at approximately €1.70 to €2 per kilogram. Greek producers in mountainous and hard-to-access olive growing areas face even steeper challenges, as mechanisation is more difficult and harvesting costs are higher. Giannoulis warned that, if current conditions persist, Greece could lose 20% to 30% of its olive oil production over the next 10 to 20 years.
Falling prices are already reshaping consumer behaviour. According to Nielsen data cited by SEVITEL, olive oil sales in Greece's organised retail sector rose by around 20% by volume in 2025, climbing from 14.46 million litres in 2024 to approximately 17.3 million litres. The recovery followed a major decline in 2023, when sales had fallen to around 11 million litres. The upward trend continued into 2026, with sales during the first eight months of the year increasing by approximately 6%, from 10.5 million to 11.15 million litres.
On the global stage, the International Olive Council estimates that worldwide olive oil consumption reached approximately 3.215 million tonnes in 2024/25, an increase of more than 15%. Consumption is forecast to reach 3.248 million tonnes in 2025/26, while global production is estimated at around 3.44 million tonnes.
Yet the years of high prices have left a lasting imprint on household habits. When olive oil became significantly more expensive, consumers began reducing the quantities they used in everyday cooking, and Giannoulis suggested that those who learned to use smaller amounts during the crisis may not automatically return to previous habits simply because prices have fallen. The shift reflects a deeper structural trend: Greek per capita consumption has already fallen from almost 20 kilograms historically to around 9.7 kilograms today, while the domestic market has shrunk to close to 100,000 tonnes annually from around 200,000 tonnes in the past.
Greek producers are also increasingly looking outward. SEVITEL estimates that exports of standardised Greek olive oil stand at around 50,000 tonnes, with private companies investing to expand their international footprint. Koutsioumpis has highlighted Greece's limited organised promotion abroad, particularly when compared with Turkey's strong presence at major international exhibitions. Tunisia is another rising competitor, leveraging substantial production volumes, lower costs and a special export regime for part of its shipments to the European market.
As the new Greek harvest gets under way, the interplay of production levels, Spanish output, global demand and rising cultivation costs will determine whether the coming season delivers further relief to consumers or intensifies the pressure on Greek olive growers.
Source: Greek City Times