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The global soybean oil market is projected to expand from USD 43.87 billion in 2026 to USD 57.66 billion by 2031, posting a compound annual growth rate of 5.62% over the forecast period, according to a new analysis from Mordor Intelligence. The Hyderabad-based research firm attributes the growth primarily to surging demand for renewable diesel and biofuel feedstocks, while the EU Deforestation Regulation is simultaneously forcing retailers and processors to overhaul their supply chains for full traceability. Additional crushing capacity in Brazil and Argentina is offsetting a slower pace of capacity expansion in North America, keeping global supply on an upward trajectory.
Renewable energy mandates across the United States, Canada, Brazil, and the European Union are creating a structural floor for soybean oil demand as a biofuel feedstock, cushioning the market against the cyclical swings that typically affect food consumption. Demand is also broadening as plant-based food manufacturers and industrial oleochemical producers add to the traditional edible-oil consumption base.
In the United States, the Environmental Protection Agency finalized record-high Renewable Fuel Standard volumes for 2026 and 2027 in March 2026, with biodiesel and renewable diesel production projected to grow more than 60% compared to 2025 levels. The rule reinforces the policy floor under soybean oil demand and is supporting crush margins for domestic processors.
The EU Deforestation Regulation is reshaping sourcing requirements for retailers and processors placing soy products on the European market, adding a new layer of compliance cost and complexity to global soybean oil supply chains. Soy is one of seven commodities explicitly covered by the regulation, alongside palm oil and cocoa. Large and medium operators face a compliance deadline of December 30, 2026, with micro and small operators following by June 30, 2027. Suppliers able to document deforestation-free origin are positioned to capture preferential access to EU-facing demand as the deadline approaches.
Additional crushing capacity coming online in Brazil and Argentina is balancing slower capacity expansion in North America, keeping global soybean oil production on an upward trajectory even as regional growth rates diverge. Technological advances such as high-oleic cultivars and enzyme-assisted extraction are helping processors lower costs and extend product shelf life, supporting margins as South American supply takes on a larger share of incremental global output.
'As renewable energy mandates and EU deforestation-compliance requirements reshape sourcing across the soybean oil value chain, our structural analysis maps shifting demand across food, feed, and biofuel end uses. Built on direct supply-chain auditing and objective volume tracking, this report equips commercial leaders with a verified, defensible foundation for strategic procurement and investment,' said Bhavesh-Narasinha Varute, Senior Research Manager at Mordor Intelligence.
South America, led by Brazil and Argentina, is emerging as the primary growth engine for global soybean oil supply, as new crushing capacity comes online faster than in North America and export-oriented biofuel and food-processing demand expands. North America remains a strategically important market anchored by renewable diesel demand and established food-processing infrastructure, even as capacity expansion proceeds more slowly. Europe's demand is increasingly shaped by regulatory compliance under the EU Deforestation Regulation. Asia-Pacific and the Middle East and Africa continue to represent large, price-sensitive consumption markets for food-grade soybean oil, supporting steady volume demand alongside the biofuel-driven growth in the Americas.
The global soybean oil market remains moderately consolidated, with major crushers and integrated agribusiness companies competing on production scale, crush capacity, feedstock sourcing, and distribution reach across food, feed, and biofuel end markets. Compliance capability is emerging as a new competitive differentiator: companies able to document deforestation-free, traceable soy sourcing are better positioned to retain EU-facing customers ahead of the region's December 2026 compliance deadline. Producers are also investing in additional crushing capacity in South America and adopting technologies such as high-oleic cultivars and enzyme-assisted extraction to lower costs, diversify end-use exposure across food, feed, and industrial applications, and reduce reliance on any single demand channel.
Mordor Intelligence also released updated outlooks for adjacent oils and fats segments. The global cold-pressed oil market is projected to expand from USD 25.33 billion in 2026 to USD 33.21 billion by 2031, a 5.57% CAGR, driven by consumer demand for unrefined oils retaining bioactive polyphenols, essential fatty acids, and heat-sensitive vitamins. The global vegetable oil market is forecast to grow from USD 421.23 billion in 2026 to USD 598.85 billion by 2031, advancing at a 7.29% CAGR, supported by expanding plant-based dietary adoption and rising convenience food manufacturing. The global palm oil market is expected to grow from USD 74.51 billion in 2026 to USD 92.01 billion by 2031, a 4.31% CAGR, with demand underpinned by extensive cross-industry utilization across food processing, personal care, and oleochemical derivatives.
Source: Mordor Intelligence via PR Newswire