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Rapeseed prices on key international exchanges are experiencing rapid upward trends, driven primarily by ongoing disruptions to Ukrainian grain exports. Targeted Russian attacks on civilian vessels attempting to access Ukrainian ports have effectively halted seaborne rapeseed shipments from the country, adding significant speculative pressure to markets in Paris and Winnipeg. This upward movement is further amplified by a general increase in global oil prices.
On the Euronext Paris exchange, August rapeseed futures recorded a 2.4% increase yesterday, reaching €557.25 per tonne, or $635 per tonne. This represents a 5.6% rise over the week and a substantial 10.5% increase for the month. Similarly, November futures advanced by 1.6%, hitting €559 per tonne, their highest level since July 25, 2024.
Despite these soaring futures prices, the supply outlook within the European Union appears robust. France's rapeseed harvest is projected to remain stable at last year's volumes, while Germany anticipates a 1.5% increase to 4.03 million tonnes, thanks to expanded cultivation areas. Consequently, the EU market is expected to have ample rapeseed supplies, particularly in light of the current stock price appreciation.
However, a divergence is observed in physical prices for rapeseed destined for factory delivery in August and September. These prices are declining due to an oversupply, particularly from Ukrainian sellers. Ukrainian exporters are now reorienting their logistics towards road and rail transport across the western border. For instance, rapeseed delivered to German plants in August is currently €26 per tonne lower than Matif prices, with September delivery down €20 per tonne, and December delivery €6 per tonne lower for rapeseed with a 40% oil content.
Across the Atlantic, November canola futures on the ICE exchange in Winnipeg also saw a 1.9% gain yesterday, closing at 810 CAD per tonne, or $575 per tonne. This marks a 2.5% increase for the week and an 8.7% rise for the month, primarily attributed to stronger demand.
Canadian canola exports showed a sharp increase in the week of July 6-12, reaching 305 thousand tonnes, a significant jump from 52.5 thousand tonnes the previous week, according to the Canadian Grain Commission. Total exports for the 2025/26 marketing year have now reached 8.56 million tonnes. While this is 7.3% lower than the pace of the previous season, it already surpasses the annual forecast of 8.4 million tonnes set by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
Nonetheless, the Canadian canola market could face renewed pressure from potential declines in domestic demand and prices. This concern follows recent announcements that former President Trump has re-imposed 50% tariffs on approximately $20 billion worth of certain Canadian goods, out of total annual imports of around $380 billion. This action could ignite a fresh 'tariff war' between the two nations.
Back in Ukraine, export demand prices for rapeseed are finding support from the rising quotations in Paris, especially along the western border. Prices at western border terminals have climbed by €10 per tonne to €485-500 per tonne, or $565-575 per tonne. Conversely, demand in Black Sea ports is decreasing, with prices holding at $550-565 per tonne (for 42% oil content) or UAH 25,500-26,000 per tonne for delivery to ports. Some traders have entirely ceased purchases due to intense shelling targeting ports and vessels.
Ukrainian processors are actively lowering their purchase prices, having reduced them by another 500 UAH per tonne yesterday to 23,700–25,000 UAH per tonne ($470–490 per tonne excluding VAT) for delivery to plants. This is a direct consequence of limited export opportunities for processed oil and meal. The combination of increased rapeseed supply and export uncertainty is expected to boost domestic processing activities in Ukraine—even at the expense of farmer incomes—and will likely lead to a further reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed exports in the 2026/27 marketing year.
Source: Ukrainian Grain Exchange