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The global olive oil market is preparing for a transition in the 2026/27 season, with preliminary forecasts indicating that production will exceed demand, creating a more competitive trading environment. According to industry estimates cited by the World Olive Oil Exhibition, global production is projected to reach between 3.50 million and 3.65 million tonnes. With consumption expected to hover around 3.25 million tonnes, the market is poised to move into a surplus—a significant shift from the tight supply conditions that have defined the sector in recent years.
Spain is expected to lead this recovery, with forecasts suggesting an output of approximately 1.60 million tonnes, representing a 23% increase over the previous season. This would secure Spain a 46% share of global production, reinforcing its status as the primary price setter for the industry. The rebound in Spanish output is critical for the global bulk market, as it influences export availability and the purchasing patterns of major bottlers and importers across Europe and North America.
Beyond Spain, production across the European Union is also looking robust. Italy is forecast to produce 325,000 tonnes, Greece approximately 300,000 tonnes, and Portugal is expected to reach 180,000 tonnes. While the EU outlook is positive, the situation outside the bloc is more varied. Production is expected to decline in Tunisia, Türkiye, and Morocco—three vital suppliers for international markets. Conversely, Syria is anticipated to see a dramatic rise in output, jumping from 66,000 tonnes to 191,000 tonnes.
These uneven national results are likely to reshape international trade flows. Importers and distributors are expected to adjust their sourcing strategies based on harvest timing, domestic policies, and logistics. In a season defined by higher supply, the World Olive Oil Exhibition emphasizes that quality, product differentiation, and strategic market positioning will be essential for producers to maintain pricing power against intensified competition.
Another emerging trend noted by market analysts is the growing demand from the hospitality and restaurant sectors (Horeca). Olive oil is taking on a more prominent role in both premium food services and everyday professional kitchens. This shift offers producers an opportunity to build stable demand channels outside traditional retail, particularly for high-value oils defined by their origin and variety.
To facilitate these commercial connections, the World Olive Oil Exhibition has announced its next event for March 10 and 11, 2027, at IFEMA Madrid, offering a 15% discount for exhibitors who register by October 31. While the early forecast suggests a more comfortable supply-demand balance, the final outcome will remain dependent on weather conditions and milling yields in the coming months. For now, the industry is bracing for a season characterized by increased availability and heightened competition for market share.
Source: Vinetur