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Global production of the ten major oilseeds is forecast to reach 705.9 million tons in the 2026/27 marketing year, up 14.1 million tons year-on-year, according to analysis published by Oil World and reported by UkrAgroConsult. Despite the expansion, the projected increase represents the smallest year-on-year gain of the past five seasons.
The forecast assumes a 9.6 million hectare expansion in planted area worldwide. However, average yields are expected to decline across several key producing regions, including India, North America, the European Union and Australia, as sharply higher production costs for fertilizers, crop protection products and diesel fuel weigh on output potential.
Within the global crop mix, soybean output is expected to reach 440.3 million tons, sunflower seed 64.3 million tons and rapeseed 87.3 million tons in 2026/27.
At the same time, the global oilseed crushing sector is on track to expand strongly for a fourth consecutive season, supported by robust demand for vegetable oils and protein meals. An anticipated decline in global palm oil production and exports is expected to reinforce reliance on alternative vegetable oils, providing additional support to crush margins outside Southeast Asia.
Global soybean crushing in 2026/27 is projected at 384.3 million tons, up 7.2 million tons from the previous year. Rapeseed crushing is forecast to rise by 3.7 million tons to 85.7 million tons, while sunflower seed crushing may increase by 4.9 million tons to 56.85 million tons.
The largest gains in oilseed processing utilization are expected in the United States, Brazil, Argentina, Russia, Ukraine and China. Growth in soybean crushing in China, however, is expected to slow to just 1.2 million tons, while rapeseed and canola processing could rebound if imports of Canadian canola increase significantly.
Source: UkrAgroConsult