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The Marine Ingredients Organization (IFFO) is reporting continued weak output of fishmeal and fish oil, attributing the decline to the coastal El Niño weather pattern's impact on raw material availability.
Scientists had warned in July that a 'Super' El Niño was likely to develop in 2026, anticipated to trigger a wave of diverse impacts across multiple global fisheries. Fisheries had already begun preparing for the phenomenon before it intensified, but ultimately could do little more than react to rising water temperatures.
IFFO stated that the repercussions on Peru, which has been 'particularly affected', will have a broader impact on the global supply chain, given that the nation typically accounts for 20 percent of the world's fishmeal production. Peru's anchovy fishery, the largest by volume globally, saw its North-Central season quota set at 1,914,049 metric tons (MT). However, much of this quota remained uncaught following an extended pause in fishing activity that began in June and continued through August.
'Fishing activity was repeatedly interrupted by closures before being suspended on 10 June, with only about 25 percent of the quota caught,' IFFO reported. The organization added, 'Consequently, Peruvian marine ingredient production has remained well below historical levels so far in 2026. El Niño conditions continue to strengthen and are forecast to persist into early 2027, while North-Central fishing remains effectively inactive.'
Outside Peru, Chile is also experiencing challenging fishing conditions, with catches in 2026 significantly below those of previous years. Northern Europe is similarly seeing reduced raw material output due to lower quotas for species such as mackerel and herring.
'The outlook for the full year will increasingly depend on production during the second half of 2026, when marine ingredient output typically strengthens in important producing countries such as Morocco, China, India, and Oman,' IFFO commented. 'The performance of these regions will, therefore, play an important role in determining the extent to which lower production elsewhere can be offset and, ultimately, the overall global production outcome for 2026.'
India is already anticipating lower catches of certain species in its 2027 fishing season, largely due to El Niño's influence on water temperature and productivity.
As output lags globally, IFFO notes that China's imports of fishmeal stocks are being constrained. However, the country's domestic production has managed to increase to more favorable levels.
IFFO indicated that, 'According to data from the China Feed Industry Association, aquafeed production reached 11.1 million metric tons in the first half of 2026, representing a 17.4 percent year-over-year increase and supporting an increase in domestic aquaculture production from approximately 29.9 million MT in the first half of 2025 to around 31.1 million MT during the same period in 2026.' Source: SeafoodSource