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The European Union is poised to increase its oilseed imports by 7% in the 2026/27 marketing year, driven by a sharp decline in domestic output caused by severe weather disruptions. According to the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA FAS), total EU oilseed production is estimated at 32.25 million tons, representing a 1% decrease from the previous season. This decline comes despite a nearly 7% expansion in planted area, as prolonged heatwaves and persistent drought conditions severely compromised yields for rapeseed, sunflower seeds, and soybeans.
Agricultural producers in Western and Central Europe have faced the most significant challenges, with high temperatures and lack of moisture persisting throughout critical growing phases. USDA FAS reports indicate that in several regions, the drought led to catastrophic crop failures rather than just yield reductions. These unfavorable conditions affected every major oilseed category, effectively neutralizing any production gains anticipated from the increased acreage.
Rapeseed has emerged as the most impacted crop, with EU production for 2026/27 forecast at 19.7 million tons—a 5% drop compared to the prior year. This contraction in rapeseed supply is a primary catalyst for the tightening of the EU's overall oilseed balance sheet. Simultaneously, demand from European processing facilities remains robust, forcing the regional market to lean more heavily on international suppliers to fill the raw material gap.
Sunflower and soybean production are also under pressure. Hungary, in particular, is bracing for substantial losses in its sunflower seed harvest due to the adverse climate. While farmers attempted to mitigate risks by planting more hectares, the heat-induced yield losses have outpaced these efforts. Consequently, USDA FAS has revised the oilseed crush outlook upward compared to April 2026 projections, fueled by healthy crushing margins and strong vegetable oil prices. This combination of diminished harvests and sustained industrial demand will necessitate a significant uptick in imported oilseed volumes across the bloc.
Source: UkrAgroConsult